ABSTRACT We use trade-level data to examine the role of actively managed funds (AMFs) in earnings news dissemination. We find that AMFs are drawn to, and participate disproportionately more in, earnings announcements (EAs) that include bundled managerial guidance. When the two pieces of news are directionally inconsistent, AMFs trade in the direction of future guidance rather than current earnings. AMFs exhibit an ability to discern, and adapt their trading to, the bias in bundled guidance. While AMF trades at EAs are generally more profitable than their non-EA trades, this result reverses when guidance bias is extreme. Overall, we find that increased AMF trading during EAs leads to faster price adjustment. Collectively, these findings suggest that AMFs are sophisticated processors of bundled earnings news, and their trading generally improves market price discovery. JEL Classifications: G12; G14; G23; M41.

This paper combines a data rich environment with a machine learning algorithm to provide new estimates of time-varying systematic expectational errors ("belief distortions") embedded in survey responses. We find that distortions are large even for professional forecasters, with all respondent-types over-weighting their own beliefs relative to publicly available information. Forecasts of inflation and GDP growth oscillate between optimism and pessimism by large margins, with biases in expectations evolving dynamically in response to cyclical shocks. The results suggest that artificial intelligence algorithms can be productively deployed to correct errors in human judgement and improve predictive accuracy.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

ABSTRACT We examine the effect of foreign employment on two outcomes—income shifting and the tax uncertainty of foreign transactions. Using a hand-collected sample of employment disclosures, we partition our sample into firm-years with a higher or lower degree of foreign employment. Using two distinct income shifting models, we document that, on average, a high degree of foreign employment is associated with greater tax-motivated income shifting out of the U.S. We also posit and find that a high degree of foreign employment enhances the economic substance of foreign transactions, reducing the tax uncertainty associated with foreign income. We conduct additional analyses to mitigate selection bias concerns, and we use exogenous changes to the costs and benefits of income shifting using foreign employment to strengthen identification. Our results highlight firms' use of employees as part of a tax-efficient supply chain and how foreign employment enhances income shifting opportunities between jurisdictions.

ABSTRACT Auditors often face situations in which acting on their professional obligations comes with potential personal costs. Drawing upon the Theory of Reputation in Organizations, we predict that perceived costs associated with these actions are lower for auditors with positive reputations, which, in turn, influences their actions. In our first experiment, participants perceive that auditors with negative reputations face a more constrained choice set when anticipating a budget overage. Further, participants perceive that those with positive reputations are more likely to proactively report the overage and less likely to underreport hours worked, a result mediated by the anticipated impact on evaluations for “speaking up.” In a second experiment, we manipulate reputation in a live simulation and demonstrate a causal link between reputation and auditors' skeptical action. Taken together, our experiments provide evidence that an auditor's perceived reputation influences their choice to engage in audit quality enhancing behaviors.

ABSTRACT This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are well-populated, but are unreliable outside the U.S. We adapt and extend the log-linear and present-value (LPV) framework—combining an accounting valuation anchor, its expected growth, and market prices—for estimating ERPs internationally, and implement a correction for the use of stale accounting data. An LPV ERP anchored on the book value of equity is positively associated with future returns in 26 of 29 equity markets, and largely subsumes the predictive ability of a broad set of firm characteristics previously shown to be associated with expected returns. JEL Classifications: D83; G12; G14; M41.

ABSTRACT We examine how increased competition stemming from an innovation in financial technology influences sell-side analyst research quality. We find that firms added to Estimize, an open platform that crowdsources short-term earnings forecasts, experience a pervasive and substantial reduction in consensus bias and a limited increase in consensus accuracy relative to matched control firms. Long-term forecasts and investment recommendations remain similarly biased, alleviating the concern that the documented reduction in bias is a response to broad economic forces. At the individual analyst level, we find that bias reduction is more pronounced among close-to-management analysts, and that more biased analysts respond by reducing their coverage of Estimize firms. The collective evidence suggests that competition from Estimize improves sell-side research quality by discouraging strategic bias.

ABSTRACT We investigate how performance-to-target (exceeding versus missing prior target) and task type (ability-driven versus effort-driven) affect managers' target-setting decisions in a setting where a manager sets targets for multiple employees. To do so, we use an experiment that involves executives, who average more than 16 years of work experience. We predict and find stronger target adjustments when prior targets are exceeded than when they are missed, especially when tasks are ability-driven. We also predict and find targets are differentiated more between employees within a firm when tasks are ability-driven rather than effort-driven, but this effect is attenuated when prior targets are missed. As prior empirical findings are inconclusive in this area of research, we contribute to the literature by providing controlled experimental evidence about the asymmetric nature of target adjustments. Additionally, we identify an important factor affecting managers' target-setting decisions—task type—that has largely been neglected in prior work. JEL Classifications: M21; M41; M52.

ABSTRACT We examine whether lenders use analyst forecasts of the borrower's earnings as inputs when establishing covenant thresholds in private debt contracts. We find that, among debt contracts that include an earnings covenant, earnings thresholds are set closer to analyst forecasts when analysts have historically issued more accurate earnings forecasts. These results are robust to firm fixed effects and an instrumental variable approach. Further, we find that, following a plausibly exogenous decline in the availability of analyst earnings forecasts, debt contracts are less likely to include earnings covenants. Our evidence is consistent with lenders using analyst earnings forecasts as an input when establishing debt covenant thresholds and suggests sell-side analysts play a role in debt contracting.

ABSTRACT We document large, longer term, joint regime shifts in asset valuations and the real federal funds rate‐ spread. To interpret these findings, we estimate a novel macrofinance model of monetary transmission and find that the documented regimes coincide with shifts in the parameters of a policy rule, with long‐term consequences for the real interest rate. Estimates imply that two‐thirds of the decline in the real interest rate since the early 1980s is attributable to regime changes in monetary policy. The model explains how infrequent changes in the stance of monetary policy can generate persistent changes in asset valuations and the equity premium.

ABSTRACT In this study, we consider how the accumulating nature and income direction of audit differences influence negotiated audit adjustments. We test our expectations by constructing dyads consisting of experienced auditors and financial officers, allowing them to interact via a web-based instrument. As predicted, based on expectancy violation theory and consideration of negotiation leverage, these audit difference characteristics alter the behaviors and negotiated outcomes of our participants. Specifically, dyads determine smaller adjustments when audit differences accumulate over time. Analysis of auditor-client expectations and dialog suggests the leverage of the negotiators impacts the arguments used and the persuasiveness of those arguments. Dyads also produce smaller adjustments when an accumulating audit difference increases, rather than decreases, income, due in part to clients successfully using conservatism as a persuasive argument to convince auditors to concede. Our method provides insight into how these effects occur and how the social process can alter auditors' pre-negotiation expectations.