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Some time series properties of corporate cash recovery rates*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1987 4(1), 76-88
Empirical research into corporate cash recovery rates has, in part, relied on arguments leading to the assumption that these rates are reasonably stable over time. Equivalently, the process generating firms' cash recovery rates is assumed to be mean reverting. Empirical findings of this study on the time series properties of corporate cash recovery rates failed to validate this assumption. In particular, the results indicate that the overall processes generating levels and first differences of cash recovery rates can adequately be described by a first‐order autoregressive process and a first‐order moving average, respectively. The paper discusses some implications of these results for the theoretical modeling of the internal rate of return/cash recovery rate relationship and the empirical research based thereon. Résumé. Les recherches empiriques en matière de taux de recouvrement de trésorerie des sociétés ont été fondées en partie sur une augmentation menant à l'hypothèse d'une stabilité raisonnable de ces taux dans le temps. Autrement dit, le processus générateur des taux de recouvrement de trésorerie pour les firmes est supposé de type moyenne mobile. Les résultats empiriques de cette étude sur les propriétés des séries chronologiques de taux de recouvrement de trésorerie n'ont pas permis de valider cette hypothèse. En particulier, les résultats indiquent que les processus générateurs globaux et les différences d'ordre un des taux de recouvrement de trésorerie peuvent être adéquatement décrits, respectivement par un processus autorégressif d'ordre un et un processus de moyenne mobile d'ordre un. L'article discute de quelques conséquences de ces résultats quant à la modélisation théorique de la relation entre le taux de rendement effectif et le taux de recouvrement de trésorerie, et quant à la recherche empirique fondée sur celle‐ci.

New Advances on an Old Question: Does Money Matter for Children’s Outcomes?

Journal of Economic Literature 2024 62(3), 891-947 open access
Family income is a positive predictor of children's health, human capital, and later-life earnings, but determining the extent to which these associations reflect causal effects is challenging. A recent wave of natural and randomized experiments, together with increased accessibility of large-scale administrative data, are allowing us to gain new perspectives about the importance of families' monetary resources in the U.S. and other high-income countries. This review pulls the emerging literature together to provide deeper insights into what we know, and what we don't know, about the extent to which policies that provide more generous income transfers could make a difference to children's life chances. My reading of the evidence suggests that policies providing financial resources to economically vulnerable families have the potential to improve children's outcomes. The magnitude of predicted impacts varies considerably across studies, however, and may be related to specific features of the income-generating event that researchers' leverage.

Game Theory and Cold War Rationality: A Review Essay

Journal of Economic Literature 2017 55(1), 148-161 open access
This essay reviews new histories of the role of game theory and rational decision making in shaping the social sciences, economics among them, in the postwar period. The recent books The World the Game Theorists Made by Paul Erickson and How Reason Almost Lost Its Mind: The Strange Career of Cold War Rationality by Paul Erickson, Judy Klein, Lorraine Daston, Rebecca Lemov, Thomas Sturm, and Michael Gordin raise a number of complex historical questions about the interconnections among game theory, utility theory, decision theory, optimization theory, information theory, and theories of rational choice. Moreover, the contingencies of time, place, and person call into question the usefulness of economists' linear narratives about the autonomous and progressive development of modern economics. The essay finally reflects on the challenges that these issues present for historians of recent economics.

Does Network Theory Connect to the Rest of Us? A Review of Matthew O. Jackson's Social and Economic Networks

Journal of Economic Literature 2010 48(4), 980-986
The ubiquity of networks in our social lives has long been recognized, and their importance in our economic lives is increasingly recognized as well. Yet the literature synthesized in Matthew O. Jackson's Social and Economic Networks, which covers the theory of how networks form, decay, and shape behavior at a general level, has had little influence on either applied theory or empirical work in this area. This is partly because of limitations of network theory as it has evolved in this literature. After describing the network theory presented in the book, I discuss these limitations and make some tentative suggestions as to how they might be overcome.

Business and Social Networks in International Trade

Journal of Economic Literature 2001 39(4), 1177-1203
The first two main sections survey the roles of transnational networks in alleviating problems of contract enforcement and providing information about trading opportunities, respectively. The next section covers how domestic networks influence international trade through their impact on domestic market structure. Two overarching questions unify these sections: how do networks affect efficiency, and will networks grow or shrink in importance for international trade over time. The last main sections develop research agendas for two less studied areas: the role of intermediaries who can connect foreign agents to domestic networks and the ability of transnational production networks to facilitate technology transfer.