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Liquidity Traps for Money, Bank Credit, and Interest Rates

Journal of Political Economy 1968 76(1), 1-37
Few conclusions about economic events have been repeated as frequently or have had as much influence on economists' attitudes toward monetary policy as the assertion that the monetary system of the thirties was "caught in a liquidity trap." Empirical studies of the public's demand for money and the banks' demand for earning assets seemed to support the assertion about a trap and the closely related conclusion that monetary policy had no effect on output, employment, and prices during at least some part of the thirties.1 Conclusions about the occurrence of a trap and the ineffectiveness of monetary policy were reinforced by central bankers' statements that likened monetary policy to "pushing on a string."2 Taken together the empirical evidence and the central bankers' interpretations convinced many economists that some form of a trap had existed (Keynes 1936 p. 207; Fellner, 1948, pp. 81-83, 91-93; Villard, 1948, pp. 324 334 345- Shaw, 1950, pp. 283-85)

Comment on the Long-Run and Short-Run Demand for Money

Journal of Political Economy 1968 76(6), 1234-1240
In his recent contribution to the theory and empirical analysis of the demand for money, Gregory Chow attempted to reconcile the short- and long-run behavior of the demand for money by "introducing a mechanism for the adjustment of actual money stock to desired stock. . ." (Chow, 1966, p. 111). In this brief comment, we will argue that his formulation of the adjustment equation contains implications that make it difficult to accept and that his empirical evidence does not distinguish the "relative importance of current income as compared with wealth or permanent income" (Chow, 1966, p. Ill), as he claims. Further, we show that when income and prices are not combined in a single variable, nominal income, his more important conclusions about the effect of current income on the demand for money are reversed.

Alternative Accounting Measures As Predictors of Failure.

The Accounting Review 1968 43(1), 113-122
The article focuses on evaluating alternative accounting measures. The evaluation of alternative accounting measures is one of the most difficult tasks facing the accounting profession. According to this method, alternative measures would be evaluated in terms of their ability to predict events of interest to users of accounting data. The measure with the greatest predictive ability with respect to a given event would be considered the "best" measure for that particular purpose. Although a variety of accounting measures have been offered as predictors, little is known empirically about their relative predictive power. The examination of this area can be described by summarizing earlier investigation. The purpose of the earlier study was to discover how well financial ratios could predict failure relative to random prediction. The findings of the study were: based solely upon a knowledge of the financial ratios, the failure status of firms can be correctly predicted to a much greater extent than would be expected from random prediction. This evidence, together with other tests conducted, suggested that financial ratios can be useful in the prediction of failure for at least five years prior to the event.