In measuring tunneling with intercorporate loans disclosed by Chinese listed companies, we analyze the underlying channels through which aggressive tax planning facilitates the diversion of corporate resources by firm insiders. Using path analysis, we document that the path from tax aggressiveness to related loans is mediated by both the additional cash flows from tax savings and the increased financial opacity from tax planning, and that additional cash flows plays a much more important role than opacity in helping controlling shareholders to divert corporate resources under the guise of tax aggressiveness. Beyond the two mediated paths, we also detect a residual, direct path from tax aggressiveness to related loans. After an exogenous shock from the government crackdown on diversionary related loans, we find the direct path is fully mediated by the two indirect paths, suggesting that tunneling via related loans only occurs at firms where insiders can mask tunneling under the cover of opacity or can justify related loans on grounds of abnormal cash flows from tax savings. Our evidence supports the notion that greater outside scrutiny increases the hurdle for, but does not entirely eradicate, diversion facilitated by tax aggressiveness. Collectively, our research lends some support to recent theory on the importance of taxes to corporate governance by demonstrating how the agency costs of tax planning allow certain shareholders to benefit from firm activities at the expense of others.

We document a substantial customer complaint gap between stock and mutual financial firms. To assess whether this 21% per year complaint gap stems from complaint-prone customers in stock insurers, we examine state-adjudicated complaint success. To further delineate between customer selection or treatment explanations, we exploit within insurer complaints around random claims (natural disasters) and attention shocks (media scrutiny). Further tests reveal the complaint gap widens with greater competition, near insolvency thresholds, and with more price regulation. Overall, the results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that mutual financial firms exhibit low customer satisfaction, suggesting customers find this a beneficial organizational structure.

We propose a way to formalize the relationship between descriptive analysis and structural estimation. A researcher reports an estimate ĉ of a structural quantity of interest c that is exactly or asymptotically unbiased under some base model. The researcher also reports descriptive statistics<a:math xmlns:a="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><a:mover accent="true"><a:mi>γ</a:mi><a:mo>ˆ</a:mo></a:mover></a:math>that estimate features γ of the distribution of the data that are related to c under the base model. A reader entertains a less restrictive model that is local to the base model, under which the estimate ĉ may be biased. We study the reduction in worst‐case bias from a restriction that requires the reader's model to respect the relationship between c and γ specified by the base model. Our main result shows that the proportional reduction in worst‐case bias depends only on a quantity we call the informativeness of<d:math xmlns:d="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><d:mover accent="true"><d:mi>γ</d:mi><d:mo>ˆ</d:mo></d:mover></d:math>for ĉ . Informativeness can be easily estimated even for complex models. We recommend that researchers report estimated informativeness alongside their descriptive analyses, and we illustrate with applications to three recent papers.

Priority spreading refers to the practice of firms increasing their reliance on secured and subordinated debt and reducing their reliance on senior debt as their credit quality deteriorates. We argue that priority spreading occurs because security provides creditors with greater protection from dilution from other creditors than do covenants that prioritize payments. Consistent with this argument, we find that secured bank creditors are rarely diluted by junior creditors in distressed restructurings, whereas senior unsecured creditors are frequently diluted, exogenous increases in asset volatility result in greater priority spreading and yields on senior and subordinated bonds converge as asset volatility increases. Received January 22, 2018; editorial decision January 27, 2019 by Editor David Denis.

This paper reports the results of two randomized field experiments, each offering different populations of Chicago youth a supported summer job. The program consistently reduces violent-crime arrests, even after the summer, without improving employment, schooling, or other arrests; if anything, property crime increases over two to three years. Using a new machine learning method, we uncover heterogeneity in employment impacts that standard methods would miss, describe who benefits, and leverage the heterogeneity to explore mechanisms. We conclude that brief youth employment programs can generate important behavioral change, but for different outcomes, youth, and reasons than those most often considered in the literature.

Combining granular daily data on temperatures across the continental United States with detailed establishment data from 1990 to 2015, we study the causal impact of temperature shocks on establishment sales and productivity. Using a large sample yielding precise estimates, we do not find evidence that temperature exposures significantly affect establishment-level sales or productivity, including among industries traditionally classified as “heat sensitive.” At the firm level, we find that temperature exposures aggregated across firm establishments are generally unrelated to sales, productivity, and profitability. Our results support existing findings of a tenuous relation between temperature and aggregate economic growth in rich countries.

We introduce a top-down no-arbitrage model for pricing structured products. Losses are described by Cox processes whose intensities depend on economic variables. The model provides economic insight into the impact of structured products on financial institutions’ risk exposure and systemic risk. We estimate the model using CDO data and find that spreads decrease with higher interest rates and increase with volatility and leverage. Volatility is the primary determinant of variation in tranche spreads. Leverage and interest rates are more closely associated with rare credit events. Model-implied risk premiums and the probabilities of tranche losses increase substantially during the financial crisis.

I study a mechanism design problem involving a principal and a single, boundedly rational agent. The agent transitions among belief states by combining current beliefs with up to K pieces of information at a time. By expressing a mechanism as a complex contract—a collection of clauses, each providing limited information about the mechanism—the principal manipulates the agent into believing truthful reporting is optimal. I show that such bounded rationality expands the set of implementable functions and that optimal contracts are robust not only to variation in K, but to several plausible variations on the agent’s cognitive procedure.

We examine the determinants of vertical acquisitions using product text linked to product vocabulary from input-output tables. We find that the innovation stage is important in understanding vertical integration. R&D-intensive firms are less likely to become targets of vertical acquisitions. In contrast, firms with patented innovation are more likely to sell to vertically related buyers. Firms’ R&D intensity is a more important deterrent to their vertical acquisitions when the provision of innovation incentives by potential acquirers is more difficult. The role of patents in fostering vertical acquisitions is more prevalent when potential buyers face a higher risk of holdup.

We develop an asset pricing model with heterogeneous exposure to a persistent world growth factor to identify global growth and financial shocks in a multicountry panel VAR in volatility and output growth. The econometric estimates yield three sets of empirical results about (1) the importance of global growth for the interpretation of the correlation between volatility and growth over the business cycle and the possible presence of omitted variable bias in single-country VAR studies, (2) the extent to which output shocks drive volatility, and (3) the transmission of volatility shocks to output growth.