This paper provides a comprehensive survey of existing measures of uncertainty, risk, and volatility, noting their conceptual distinctions. It summarizes how they are constructed, their relative advantages in usage, and their effects on financial market and economic outcomes. The measures are divided into four categories based on the construction methodology: news-based, survey-based, econometric-based, and market-based measures. While heightened uncertainty is typically associated with negative real and financial outcomes, the magnitude of these effects and the interpretation of transmission channels crucially depend on identification considerations.

The world has 1.4 billion passenger vehicles. How should governments regulate their air pollution emissions? A Pigouvian tax is technologically infeasible. Most countries instead rely on exhaust standards that limit air pollution emissions per mile for new vehicles. We assess the effectiveness and efficiency of these standards, which are the centerpiece of U.S. Clean Air Act regulation of transportation, and counterfactual policies. We show that the air pollution emissions per mile of new U.S. vehicles has fallen spectacularly, by over 99%, since standards began in 1967. Several research designs with a half century of data suggest that exhaust standards have caused most of this decline. Yet exhaust standards are not cost-effective in part because they fail to encourage scrap of older vehicles, which account for the majority of emissions. To study counterfactual policies, we develop an analytical and a quantitative model of the vehicle fleet. Analysis of these models suggests that tighter exhaust standards increase social welfare and increasing registration fees on dirty vehicles yields even larger gains by accelerating scrap, although both reforms have complex effects on inequality.

We identify executives who have experienced significant accounting-related adverse events during their careers as a powerful setting to examine the extent to which prior professional experience can influence subsequent financial reporting policies. We find that firms led by senior financial executives who have experienced accounting-related adverse events during their careers exhibit greater unconditional accounting conservatism, a lower likelihood of experiencing future accounting-related adverse events, and less positive abnormal discretionary accruals. This effect tends to be stronger when the experience is more frequent, recent, severe, or proximate. Overall, our results reveal a meaningful relationship between managers’ professional experience and accounting policies. Data Availability: All data used in this study are obtained from publicly available sources.

We examine the effect of ex ante litigation risk on the price and non-price terms of loan contracts. Since expected litigation is endogenous, we focus on federal circuit court judge ideology to generate plausibly exogenous variation in the outcome of a class action lawsuit. We find that loans issued by firms headquartered in circuits with a higher likelihood of drawing a liberal panel of judges in a class action lawsuit have higher loan spreads, shorter maturity, and a larger number of and more restrictive covenants. To strengthen our claim that judge ideology affects loan contracting through its effect on the outcome of a class action lawsuit, we show that the influence of judge ideology on price and nonprice terms of loans is strongly influenced by factors that influence the probability of a class action lawsuit. Overall, our results bolster the case that litigation risk has a causal effect on debt contracting.

We resolve the asymmetric price response puzzle for additions to and deletions from the S&P 500 documented in Chen, Noronha, and Singal (2004) by using a more appropriate methodology to measure abnormal returns and correctly adjusting for outliers. In contrast to their findings, our results show a permanent price response for both additions and deletions. We further distinguish between firms transferred into other S&P indices and true additions/deletions (firms not added from or placed into other S&P indices). We find a permanent price increase for true additions and a permanent decline in price for true deletions from the S&P 500.

We provide evidence that lenders with lower regulatory capital issue loans with lower financial covenant strictness, consistent with such lenders viewing borrower covenant violations as costlier. This is because a borrower covenant violation may lead the lender to downgrade the loan, which triggers accounting that further reduces regulatory capital. Because of regulatory scrutiny, this is true even if the lender waives the violation. We find that this association is concentrated in performance covenants rather than capital covenants. We also find that lenders with relatively low capital issue loans with lower amounts and shorter maturities, consistent with such lenders replacing covenant protection with stricter loan terms on other dimensions. Finally, we find that this form of lender capital management extends to loan syndicate participant lenders, in that participants with relatively low capital adequacy take smaller loan shares when the lead arranger sets high covenant strictness. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

This paper examines how changes in risk disclosures affect uncertainty about risk. We measure changes in risk disclosures using the addition and removal of individual risk factors to firms’ 10-K filings, identified via textual analysis of the risk factors section. Our market outcome is the variance risk premium (VRP), which captures the market’s pricing of uncertainty about firm risk. Following recent theoretical predictions, we predict and empirically document that newly disclosed signals of risk factor exposure—reflected in added and removed individual risk factors—decrease the uncertainty surrounding firm risk, as proxied via the VRP. We further confirm that individual risk factors offer incremental insights compared with alternative textual risk measures. Collectively, our findings suggest that textually evaluating individual risk factors reveals information about the uncertainty regarding firm risk. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

A longstanding literature suggests that earnings provide the market with relevant information about firm performance, but one often overlooked benefit is their role in disciplining market expectations. This study examines the role of earnings announcements in constraining potential mispricing associated with firm-specific media sentiment. We show that media sentiment-driven quarterly returns (orthogonal to risk factors and fundamental news) largely reverse when public earnings are released. Our results suggest that quarterly earnings announcements play an important role in reducing media sentiment-related mispricing. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

We examine multi-generational impacts of positive in utero health interventions using a new research design that exploits sharp increases in prenatal Medicaid eligibility that occurred in some states. Our analyses are based on U.S. Vital Statistics Natality files, which enables linkages between individuals' early life Medicaid exposure and the next generation's health at birth. We find evidence that the health benefits associated with treated generations' early life program exposure extend to later offspring. Our results suggest that the returns on early life health investments may be substantively underestimated.

Prior research finds that clients of high-quality auditors report higher-quality GAAP earnings. We extend this research to investigate whether auditor quality is associated with the quality of voluntarily disclosed non-GAAP earnings measures. Using a sample of Australian firms disclosing annual non-GAAP metrics, we find that clients of high-quality auditors are more likely to voluntarily disclose non-GAAP earnings numbers. However, clients of high-quality auditors make adjustments in calculating non-GAAP earnings (non-GAAP exclusions) that are less predictive of future earnings and less value relevant than those of other firms. These results indicate that their adjustments are of higher quality. We also find similar results for U.S. firms using a sample of quarterly non-GAAP earnings disclosures. Overall, our evidence indicates that commonly used indicators of audit quality for GAAP reporting are positively associated with the quality of voluntarily disclosed non-GAAP earnings measures.