Knowledge that Transforms

Keun Huh, Robin C. Sickles, Estimation of the Duration Model by Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Penalized Likelihood, and Probability Simulators, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 76, No. 4 (Nov., 1994), pp. 683-694

Charles W. Howe, Byung-Joo Lee, Lynne L. Bennett, Design and Analysis of Contingent Valuation Surveys Using the Nested Tobit Model, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 76, No. 2 (May, 1994), pp. 385-389

The effect of changing prices on the supply of physicians' services has important policy implications. In this note, a correction of previous work on supply by the author in this shows that with aggregate data the price elasticity of supply is zero. However, using individual physician data in the context of a utility-maximizing model of supply, it is found that the price elasticity of supply is about -0.2. This result could portend serious problems ahead for recently enacted Medicare pricing strategies to contain physician spending. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

A Bayesian seminonparametric approach to ARCH models is developed with the advantage that small sample results are obtained even when the likelihood function is subject to nonlinear inequality constraints (as in the ARCH models used in this paper). The seminonparametric nature of the approach allows for the relaxation of the assumption of normal errors. An application and a small Monte Carlo study indicate that the methods the author advocates are both feasible and necessary. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

Money demand plays a central role in recent models of rapid inflation and stabilization which are highly relevant to the Israeli economy. This paper uses co-integration analysis to estimate money demand in Israel. We find that money demand shifted at the beginning of the 1980s, probably as a result of increased use of liquid indexed assets which provide protection against high inflation. In the previous two decades the equation was a fairly conventional 'U.S.-type' logarithmic function. In the last decade the equation has had a lower constant and has exhibited less sensitivity to interest rate changes. In both periods the nominal rate of interest and real private consumption have been co-integrated with real M1 balances, and interest elasticity has been less than unity. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

This study simultaneously estimates the likelihoods that a worker receives advance notice of a plant closing and that a notified worker quits the job before its scheduled end. The author finds that fear of early attrition is a significant determinant of a firm's decision to provide advance notice. Explicit consideration of employer's concerns may significantly improve prediction of advance notice. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

This paper proposes a method for measuring the effects of substitutions in the timing of recreational use on people's willingness to pay for nonmarketed resources. Using the three markets (peak, pre-peak, and post-peak) for weekly rentals of vacation properties along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, we are able to control for changes in the mix of site characteristics selected at different times and estimate the effects of temporal substitution on tradeoffs between other characteristics. Proximity to the ocean was found to be a significant determinant of temporal substitution between the peak and pre-peak seasons with ocean front properties having 1.9 percent to 4.7 percent smaller discounts for preseason rentals relative to other properties. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

Sunk cost models of new trade theory have demonstrated that large, unanticipated swings in currency values can have permanent effects on trade flows by altering market structure in imperfectly competitive markets. The author tests an implication of these models using panel data on export unit values from Germany and Japan to a number of foreign markets, including the United States. He finds weak evidence in support of the thesis that U.S. product markets became more competitive as a result of the large dollar appreciation of the 1980s, although the results vary by industry and comparison country. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

Discount window borrowing by weekly reporting banks disaggregated by Federal Reserve district is used to estimate Marvin Goodfriend's (1983) model of borrowed reserves. Little evidence is found to support the argument that a bank's borrowing decision is determined by the spread between the funds rate and the discount rate and by prior bank borrowing. A weekly reporting bank has only a 2.7 percent chance of visiting the discount window during any given maintenance period. This result is consistent with the presence of considerable harassment costs imposed by the discount window officer. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

The authors propose a rational signaling model to investgate the information content of dividends. The model provides a direct test of the relation between unexpected dividend and earnings changes. In identifying the component of unexpected dividend changes, the authors suggest an expectations framework that accounts for the process of dividend adjustment to firms' permanent earnings. A nonlinear regression method is used to estimate the model and test the rationality and signaling hypotheses. Consistent with Paul Healy and Krishna Palepu's (1988) findings, the results show that dividends reflect past, current, and future earnings information. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.