Why do similar households end up with very different levels of wealth? We show that differences in the attitudes and skills with which they approach finan-cial planning are a significant factor. We use new and unique survey data to assess these differences and to measure each household’s “propensity to plan. ” We show that those with a higher such propensity spend more time developing financial plans, and that this shift in planning is associated with increased wealth. These findings are consistent with broad psychological evidence concern-ing the beneficial impacts of planning on goal pursuit. Those with a high propen-sity to plan may be better able to control their spending, and thereby achieve their goal of wealth accumulation. We find direct evidence supporting this effortful self-control channel in the very strong relationship we uncover between the propensity to plan and budgeting behavior. I.

We develop an algorithm for detecting teacher cheating that combines information on unexpected test score fluctuations and suspicious patterns of answers for students in a classroom. Using data from the Chicago public schools, we estimate that serious cases of teacher or administrator cheating on standardized tests occur in a minimum of 4–5 percent of elementary school classrooms annually. The observed frequency of cheating appears to respond strongly to relatively minor changes in incentives. Our results highlight the fact that high-powered incentive systems, especially those with bright line rules, may induce unexpected behavioral distortions such as cheating. Statistical analysis, however, may provide a means of detecting illicit acts, despite the best attempts of perpetrators to keep them clandestine.

Trade Structure, Industrial Structure, and International Business Cycles by Marianne Baxter and Michael A. Kouparitsas. Published in volume 93, issue 2, pages 51-56 of American Economic Review, May 2003

Organizational Design and Technology Choice under Intrafirm Bargaining: Reply by Lars A. Stole and Jeffrey Zwiebel. Published in volume 93, issue 1, pages 456-457 of American Economic Review, March 2003

Many firms have stockholders who face severe restrictions on their ability to sell their shares and diversify the risk of their personal wealth. We study the costs of these liquidity restrictions on stockholders using a continuous-time portfolio choice framework. These restrictions have major effects on the optimal investment and consumption strategies because of the need to hedge the illiquid stock position and smooth consumption in anticipation of the eventual lapse of the restrictions. These results provide a number of important insights about the effects of illiquidity in financial markets.

High–frequency financial data are not only discretely sampled in time but the time separating successive observations is often random. We analyze the consequences of this dual feature of the data when estimating a continuous–time model. In particular, we measure the additional effects of the randomness of the sampling intervals over and beyond those due to the discreteness of the data. We also examine the effect of simply ignoring the sampling randomness. We find that in many situations the randomness of the sampling has a larger impact than the discreteness of the data.

We examine the response of domestic Philippine banks to the relaxation of foreign entry regulations that occurred in the Philippines. We find evidence that foreign bank entry is associated with a reduction in interest rate spreads and bank profits, but only for those domestic banks that are affiliated to a family business group. Foreign entry corresponds more generally with improvements in operating efficiencies, but a deterioration of loan portfolios. Overall, we conclude that foreign competition compels domestic banks to be more efficient, to focus operations due to increased risk, and to become less dependent on relationship-based banking practices.

Five methods of estimating the term structure from on-the-run Treasuries are compared with respect to error in spot rate estimation, forward rate estimation, and coupon bond pricing. The methods can all be considered variants of the bootstrapping technique. The two discrete-time bootstrapping methods are based on linear and cubic interpolation of the yield curve. Two continuous-time bootstrapping methods are based on exponential functional forms for the yield curve and a third is based on a bilinear transformation of a power function. Simulated bond samples with and without random error are employed to study the relative importance of interpolation error and random pricing error. CRSP bond data are used in assessing the accuracy of the methods in pricing liquid and illiquid bonds. Two methods stand out in terms of good interpolation properties and robustness in the face of pricing errors. These are the Nelson and Siegel and the Mansi and Phillips methods. Both are based on exponential functions.