In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have a remarkable predictive ability. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election.

In this paper we analyze the solutions of linear econometric models with rational expectations. More precisely, we describe in detail the set of all the solutions; in particular this set is shown to be much larger than the sets previously considered. We also study various criteria of selection in this set of solutions and we examine to what extent these criteria redtiuce the set of the solutions.

A large sample of U.S.-based manufacturing multinational companies were surveyed regarding their investment valuation practices. It was found that: (a) Foreign Direct Manufacturing Investment (FDMI) is motivated primarily by profit rather than the recently proposed behavioral considerations; (b) the majority of companies practice project-by-project analysis of the simple accept/reject type, rather than the comparative project analysis advocated by financial analysts; (c) most of the companies utilized criteria for single investments, cash-flows, and cost of capital that were in general agreement with the analytical literature; (d) companies were concerned more with business risk than currency and political risks—moreover, all three types of risk were evaluated subjectively and accounted through adjustments in the required rates of return rather than the cash flows of the FDMI, as specified in financial research; (e) analysis of demographic and behavioral variables for possible relationships to FDMI evaluation practices yielded interesting but variable specific results. The questionnaires were mailed in May 1979 and the personal interviews were conducted during December 1979 and the first six months of 1980.

This article provides quantitative estimates from an econometric model of the output, price, interest rate, and exchange rate linkages among a number of countries. The linkages are examined by changing various policy variables and observing the resulting changes in the endogenous variable. The model is also used to estimate what is called the "exchanging rate effect" on inflation. One of the ways in which monetary and fiscal policies may affect a country's inflation rate is by first influencing its exchange rate, which in turn influences import prices, which in turn influence domestic prices. The model allows this exchange rate effect on inflation to be estimated.

Examples are given which show that:(i) normality is not Necessary for the consistency of the quasi maximum likelihood estimator in the nonlinear simultaneous equations model (nonlinear FIML) even when there are major departures from linearity; and (ii) the lemma which is used extensively by Amemiya [2] in the theoretical development of the properties of nonlinear FIML under the assumption of normality is, as presently stated, incorrect.