This paper demonstrates that negative serial correlation in long horizon stock returns is consistent with an equilibrium model of asset pricing. When investors display only a moderate desire to smooth their consumption, commonly used measures of mean reversion in stock prices calculated from historical returns data nearly always lie within a 60 percent confidence interval of the median of the Monte Carlo distributions implied by our equilibrium model. From this evidence, we conclude that the degree of serial correlation in the data could plausibly have been generated by our model.
This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model of North-South trade in which research and development races between firms determine the rate of product innovation in the North. Tariffs designed to protect dying industries in the North from Southern competition reduce the steady-state number of dominant firms in the North, reduce the rate of product innovation, and increase the relative wage of Northern workers.
Bidder coalitions at English auctions frequently distribute collusive gains among members via a secondary auction or "knockout." When coalition members are sufficiently heterogeneous, nested coalition structures are observed in which a knockout is conducted at each level of nesting. The nested knockout's characteristics are investigated. Within many settings we find that the expected payments to coalition members via the nested knockout equal the Shapley value. Incentive compatibility problems of the nested knockout are also analyzed.
The information contained in one model's forecast compared to that in another can be assessed from a regression of actual values on predicted values from the two models. The authors do this for forecasts of real GNP growth rates for different pairs of models. The models include a structural model (the Fair model), various versions of the vector autoregressive model, and various versions of a model the authors call the "autoregressive components" model. The authors' procedure requires that forecasts make no use of future information and they have been careful to try to insure this, including using the version of the Fair model that existed in 1976, the beginning of their test period.
Claims ultimately awarded to shareholders of firms in reorganization were examined for a sample of 30 filings under the 1978 Bankruptcy Reform Act. We measured the amount paid to shareholders in excess of that which they would have received under the absolute priority rule and found that this amount represents, on average, 7.6% of the total awarded to all claimants. Evidence is also reported that common share values reflect a significant proportion of value ultimately received in violation of absolute priority, suggesting that deviations from the rule were expected by the equity markets.
Claims ultimately awarded to shareholders of firms in reorganization were examined for a sample of thirty filings under the 1978 Bankruptcy Reform Act. The authors measured the amount paid to shareholders in excess of that which they would have received under the absolute priority rule and found that this amount represents, on average, 7.6 percent of the total awarded to all claimants. Evidence is also reported that common share values reflect a significant proportion of value ultimately received in violation of absolute priority, suggesting that deviations from the rule were expected by the equity markets.