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Attracting Flows by Attracting Big Clients

Journal of Finance 2009 64(5), 2125-2151
We explore a new channel for attracting inflows using a unique data set of corporate 401(k) retirement plans and their mutual fund family trustees. Families secure substantial inflows by being named trustee. We find that family trustees significantly overweight, and are reluctant to sell, their 401(k) client firm's stock. Trustee overweighting is more pronounced when the relationship is more valuable to the trustee family, and is concentrated in those funds receiving the greatest benefit from the inflows. We quantify this flow benefit and find that inclusion in the 401(k) plan has an economically and statistically large, positive effect on inflows.

Market Structure and Competition among Retail Depository Institutions

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2007 89(1), 60-74 open access
We assess competition among retail depository institutions in 1,884 rural markets. We estimate an equilibrium market structure model that endogenizes the operating decisions of three types of depository institutions: multimarket banks, single-market banks, and thrift institutions. Observed market structures and a game-theoretic specification of entry behavior identify the parameters of an underlying profit function. We find strong evidence that product differentiation generates additional profits for retail depository institutions. These profits help to maintain smaller banks and thrifts, even as larger banks expand their operations. Consumers have more options, as more institutions can profitably operate as a result of product differentiation.

The Behavior or Help-Wanted Advertising: A Reply

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1970 52(4), 442
In the February 1967 issue of the Review we presented estimates of a relationship between changes in help-wanted advertising normalized for growth in the labor force, and changes in the unemployment rate, and new hires, and a dummy variable reflecting the phase of the business cycle [11]. Two notes by Burch and Fabricant [2] and Gujarati [3] have expanded upon our findings. Each paper presents an alternative model and finds that in its own model the relationship between the unemployment rate and the amount of help-wanted advertising is not stable over the period 1951 through 1966 or 1968. The Burch-Fabricant paper tests for the shift in the coefficient of the reciprocal of the unemployment rate before and after 1957. The Gujarati paper tests for the difference in the slope of the unemployment coefficient in ten different business cycle phases from 1951 to 1968. Both papers seem to explain a greater fraction of the variance of the dependent variable than does our model. However, our dependent variable is the change in the normalized help-wanted advertising index; in the other two papers it is the level. By the usual standards, our ]R2 of 0.82 is at least as good as the somewhat higher correlations produced in the level equations. When the two tests suggested respectively by Burch and Fabricant, and Gujarati were applied to our model, the coefficient of the unemployment rate change variable proved to be stable. We first added a variable which is zero up to 1957 and equal to the change in the unemployment rate after 1957; in effect, the regression coefficient of AU is allowed to change its value in 1957. If this variable is estimated along with the other variables in our model, a simple t test will indicate whether the coefficient did in fact change after 1957. Our original equation for the period 1951-1966, second quarter, is reproduced as (1) below. The estimated equation with the dummy variable added is shown as (2):

Liquid Assets and the Consumption Function

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1954 36(2), 202
THE role of liquid assets as well as other assets has received considerable attention in the war and postwar years, as economists and other interested observers have watched with obvious fascination the ever-mounting totals of currency, bank deposits, and particularly, government securities.2 These vast hoards of money and near money must have had, it was argued, an appreciable effect on consumers' decisions to spend and save, as well as on producers' decisions to invest. Some even felt that these assets were bound to result in a runaway inflation after the war and the wartime controls were over. Others minimized their influence. Still others looked upon liquid assets as an automatic stabilizer from a cyclical as well as a secular standpoint. Excluding the question of the effect of liquid assets on post World War II economic activity, liquid assets have also been used by various economic theorists for a wide range of hypotheses concerning consumer behavior, raising the asset effect almost to the level of a deus ex machina. Some have argued that liquid assets are a stabilizing secular influence,3 implicit in the classical position.4 Others have argued that liquid assets are the major factor accounting for the constancy of the ratio of saving to national product.5 Contrasted with the reliance of liquid assets as a secular force is the dominant role they assume for others in the cyclical process.' Finally, liquid assets have even been proposed as the major influence determining the shape of the cyclical consumption function.7 The position of the author is as follows: whatever the effect of liquid assets in a priori reasoning as we have just seen this is manifold it must be grounded in empirical observations.8 A. P. Lerner has expressed this in another and perhaps more interesting way by saying that liquidity is a commodity and should be looked upon as any other good or service in analyzing decisions to spend or save. Before turning to the evidence, such as it is, let us recall briefly the mechanics of the impact of liquid assets on consumption and investment.

Postwar Consumption Functions

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1952 34(1), 18
The paper shall be concerned with short run (cyclical) functional relationships as well as long run (secular) relationships between the variables. In fact, the fundamental difference between the cyclical and secular character of these relationships will be stressed. In general, though with some exceptions, which will be explained presently, these variables are related in constant proportions secularly, i.e., a graphic representation of the secular functional relationship would go through the origin. On the other hand, the cyclical relationship is not one of constant proportions, so that the cyclical function does not go through the origin; it would have a positive intercept. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: i) Personal consumption expenditures are primarily a function of disposable personal income. Consumption is roughly the same proportion of deflated per capita disposable personal income in peak years.4 This is the secular relationship of consumption and income. Thus in Chart i, which presents the actual deflated per capita data, the line joining the origin with I929 comes much closer to the actual observations of I948-50 than the regression line calculated for the cyclical period I929-40. Presumably, if a serious depression were to develop from the secular peaks of 1948-50, the line of relationship would be the indicated broken line in Chart i, parallel to the interwar cyclical line relating consumption to income, but at a higher level. In other words, while the secular relationship is primarily characterized by constant proportions between consumption and disposable income, in the short run the ratio of consumption expenditures to income varies with the cycle, falling as income rises and rising with declining incomes. Thus, the fact that actual postwar personal consumption expenditures are in excess of those expected from prewar cyclical relationships with disposable income is primarily due to the upward secular drift of the consumption function. 2) This functional relationship between personal consumption expenditures and disposable personal income does not hold for periods of unprecedented disturbances in the economy associated with total war and the postwar transition to a peacetime market. Thus in Chart i, the years I946 and I947 are still considerably off the secular line of relationship. However, by 1948, the function appears to have resumed a mnore normal shape. The relative speed with which the functional relationship of consumption to income reasserted itself after the great shocks assoCiated with World WVar II is indeed ' This article represents part of a larger project on the consumption function which will examine in greater detail its short run aspects as well as the component parts of the aggregates. Appreciation is expressed for the aid of Professors Alvin H1. Hansen, G. H. Orcutt, and J. S. Duesenberry, of Harvard, none of whom, of course, is responsible for any errors that remain. The author is currently on leave from the U. S. Department of Commerce; the views expressed are his own. 2 The sources of the data used in this article are explained in a note at the end of the article. This article was written before the i95T National Income Supplement to the Survey of Current BEusiness was available. 8 J. R. Hicks, A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle (London, 1950), p. 33. 'For an early statement of the relative constancy of the ratio of consumption to income in peak years see A. H Hansen, Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles (New York, I941), p. 237.