We assemble a new dataset spanning 150 years and 60 countries to study the economic toll of war. A war of average intensity is associated with an output drop of close to 10 percent in the war-site economy, while consumer prices rise by approximately 20 percent. The capital stock, total factor productivity, and equity returns all decline sharply. The economic ramifications of war are not confined to the war site. The evidence points to adverse economic outcomes in other belligerent and third-party countries if they are exposed to the war site through trade linkages or share a common border.

We study how disclosures affect banks’ leverage and risk. Banks screen borrowers and originate loans, partially financed using insured deposits. The possibility to sell loans before they mature incentivizes banks to lever up using uninsured short-term debt to dilute insured deposits. If markets are opaque, good loans trade at a discount, which limits banks’ use of short-term debt. If markets are transparent, prices compound information contained in disclosures, which leads banks to issue more short-term debt to further dilute insured deposits. We identify conditions under which the increase in leverage caused by disclosures reduces banks’ screening incentives. Our analysis has important implications for prudential regulation, including minimum regulatory capital requirements and leverage-based deposit insurance premiums.

We examine how the prospect of research and development (R&D) disclosure affects a firm’s institutional investor base. Difference-in-differences (DiD) regressions around the enactment of the American Inventors Protection Act (AIPA), which mandated the public disclosure of patent applications within 18 months of filing, show that short-term institutional investors increase their holdings before public information is released, whereas long-term investors do not adjust their positions. This anticipatory shift is consistent with theoretical predictions that expected disclosure strengthens short-horizon investors’ incentives to acquire and trade on private information. We further document that stock prices reflect more firm-specific information leading up to disclosure and that improved liquidity at disclosure enables short-term investors to partially unwind their positions. Our paper offers novel evidence on how increases in the expected likelihood of disclosure shape investor behavior and the composition of firms’ investor bases.

Seasonal fluctuations in a firm’s business activities can affect its balance sheet and give rise to seasonally predictable accruals. We find that seasonal patterns in accruals are associated with future stock returns. Specifically, we find that firms with historically lower (higher) accruals in a given fiscal quarter have higher (lower) stock returns in the months when those accruals are expected to be announced. Our results suggest that investors do not fully understand and price historical information on accruals seasonality. Additional analyses suggest that the emergence of this accruals seasonality anomaly is concentrated in the post-2001 period and driven by the effects of unsophisticated arbitrage against the accruals anomaly.

This paper examines whether U.S. domestic firms’ investment decisions are affected by their expectations of market leaders’ tax-motivated income shifting. Market leaders’ financial reports can help peers evaluate industry conditions and potential investment payoffs, but income shifting obscures the geographic source of profits and reduces the informativeness of these disclosures. Thus, when peers expect that leaders shift income, they face greater uncertainty about the outcomes of their own investments. Consistent with the theory of investment under uncertainty, we find that U.S. domestic firms are less responsive to investment opportunities as expectations of leaders’ shifting increase. This reduced responsiveness is concentrated among firms facing higher investment irreversibility and those whose market leaders provide less transparent geographic disclosures. Our findings identify a novel spillover cost of income shifting and suggest that policies enhancing the transparency of multinational firms’ geographic reporting or constraining income shifting could help improve domestic firms’ investment decisions.

This paper studies whether social media sentiment predicts merger withdrawals. We find that a one‐standard‐deviation increase in social media sentiment after a merger announcement is associated with a 0.64 percentage point lower probability of withdrawal (16.6% of the average). This effect is unexplained by abnormal price reactions, traditional news, and analyst recommendations. Consistent with manager learning, the informativeness of social media strengthens after firms start corporate Twitter accounts. The informativeness is driven by longer acquisition‐related tweets by fundamental investors, rather than memes and price trend tweets. These findings suggest that social media signals can be important for corporate decisions.

We study aversion to model ambiguity and misspecification in dynamic portfolio choice. Risk‐averse investors (relative risk aversion ) fear return persistence, while risk‐tolerant investors () fear mean reversion, when confronting model misspecification concerns of identically and independently distributed (IID) returns. The intuition is that risk‐averse investors, who want to hedge intertemporally, endogenously fear return persistence, which precludes hedging. A log investor is myopic and unaffected by model misspecification, therefore only worrying about model ambiguity. Our model can generate belief scarring, nonparticipation in equity markets, and extrapolative return expectations. Extending beyond IID returns, we study model misspecification for a mean‐reverting Sharpe ratio.