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The Effects of Decision-Aid Use and Reliability on Jurors' Evaluations of Auditor Liability

The Accounting Review 2002 77(1), 185-202
This study provides evidence on how auditors' use of decision aids affects jurors' evaluation of auditor legal liability, based on an experiment in which actual jurors responded to a hypothetical audit lawsuit. The results suggest that decision aids can have positive, negative, or neutral effects on auditors' legal liability, depending on how auditors use the decision aid and the reliability of the decision aid. For high-reliability aids, jurors attributed more responsibility for an audit failure to the auditor when the auditor overrode the recommendation of a decision aid than when the auditor did not use the decision aid. However, jurors attributed lower responsibility to an auditor who relied on the recommendation of a highly reliable decision aid, even though the aid turned out to be incorrect. In contrast to the high-reliability conditions, auditors' use of the decision aid had virtually no impact on jurors' liability judgments when the reliability of the decision aid was low.

Ferreting out Tunneling: An Application to Indian Business Groups

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002 117(1), 121-148 open access
Owners of business groups are often accused of expropriating minority shareholders by tunneling resources from firms where they have low cash flow rights to firms where they have high cash flow rights. In this paper we propose a general methodology to measure the extent of tunneling activities. The methodology rests on isolating and then testing the distinctive implications of the tunneling hypothesis for the propagation of earnings shocks across firms within a group. When we apply our methodology to data on Indian business groups, we find a significant amount of tunneling, much of it occurring via nonoperating components of profit.

Simple Robust Testing of Regression Hypotheses: A Comment

Econometrica 2002 70(5), 2097-2099
The paper by Kiefer, Vogelsang and Bunzel (2000), KVB henceforth, provides an interesting unconventional application of functional limit theory to a conventional problem. In this note, we point out that the limiting distribution of the t^{∗} test proposed by KVB turns out to be equivalent to the asymptotic distribution of one of the statistics analysed by Abadir and Paruolo (1997), AP henceforth. The mixed-Normal random variables studied in AP and KVB are different, but they have identical distributions. The purpose of this note is to prove this equivalence analytically.

Technical, scale and allocative efficiencies of Turkish banking industry

Journal of Banking & Finance 2002 26(4), 719-766
This paper investigates input and output efficiency in the Turkish banking industry to understand the impact of size, international variables, ownership, control and governance on profit, cost, allocative, technical, pure technical and scale efficiency measures. Employing a non-parametric approach along with a parametric approach, we estimate the efficiency of Turkish banks over the 1988–1996 period. This period allows us to account for the changes in the macro economy and regulatory treatment of the Turkish banking industry over time. Our results suggest that the heterogeneous characteristics of banks have significant impact on their efficiency. Moreover, cost and profit efficiencies of the Turkish banks have exacerbated over time. Results also indicate that the dominant source of inefficiency in Turkish banking is due to technical inefficiency rather than allocative inefficiency, which is mainly attributed to diseconomies in scale. To the extent that they chose an inefficient level of production, bank management is responsible for scale inefficient operations. However, increasing demand for banking services in the nineties, fueled by the state's increasing demand for funds to finance chronic budget deficits and high growth policies, and the oligopolistic nature of the Turkish banking market do not justify scale adjustments. Our policy suggestions are that the government implement financial reform packages that foster competition in the banking market, and that the industry devise incentive schemes to improve managerial efficiency.

Mutual Fund Survivorship

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(5), 1439-1463
This article provides a comprehensive study of survivorship issues using the mutual fund data of Carhart (1997). We demonstrate theoretically that when survival depends on multiperiod performance, the survivorship bias in average performance typically increases with the sample length. This is empirically relevant because evidence suggests a multiyear survival rule for U.S. mutual funds. In the data we find the annual bias increases from 0.07% for 1-year samples to 1% for samples longer than 15 years. We find that survivor conditioning weakens evidence of performance persistence. Finally, we explain how survivor conditioning affects the relation between performance and fund characteristics.

Discrete-Time Approximations of the Holmstrom-Milgrom Brownian-Motion Model of Intertemporal Incentive Provision

Econometrica 2002 70(6), 2225-2264
This paper studies the relation between discrete–time and continuous–time principal–agent models. We derive the continuous–time model as a limit of discrete–time models with ever shorter periods and show that optimal incentive schemes in the discrete–time models approximate the optimal incentive scheme in the continuous model, which is linear in accounts. Under the additional assumption that the principal observes only cumulative total profits at the end and the agent can destroy profits unnoticed, an incentive scheme that is linear in total profits is shown to be approximately optimal in the discrete–time model when the length of the period is small.

The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume: Domestic and cross-country evidence

Journal of Banking & Finance 2002 26(1), 51-78
This paper examines the dynamic relations – causal relations and the sign and magnitude of dynamic effects – between stock market trading volume and returns (and volatility) for both domestic and cross-country markets by using the daily data of the three largest stock markets: New York, Tokyo, and London. Major findings are as follows: First, trading volume does not Granger-cause stock market returns on each of three stock markets. Second, there exists a positive feedback relationship between trading volume and return volatility in all three markets. Third, regarding the cross-country relationships, US financial market variables, in particular US trading volume, contains an extensive predictive power for UK and Japanese financial market variables. Fourth, sub-sample analyses show evidence of stronger spillover effects after the 1987 market crash and an increased importance of trading volume as an information variable after the introduction of options in the US and Japan.

International Diversification and Analysts' Forecast Accuracy and Bias

The Accounting Review 2002 77(2), 415-433
We investigate the association between corporate international diversification and the accuracy and bias of consensus analysts' earnings forecasts. We find that greater corporate international diversification is associated with less accurate and more optimistic forecasts. Our results suggest that international diversification reflects unique dimensions of forecasting difficulty that are not captured in previously identified determinants. This evidence suggests that as firms become more geographically diversified, forecasting their earnings becomes more complex.