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When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2003 118(3), 969-1005
We use a simple model to outline the conditions under which corporate investment is sensitive to nonfundamental movements in stock prices. The key prediction is that stock prices have a stronger impact on the investment of “equity-dependent” firms—firms that need external equity to finance marginal investments. Using an index of equity dependence based on the work of Kaplan and Zingales, we find support for this hypothesis. In particular, firms that rank in the top quintile of the KZ index have investment that is almost three times as sensitive to stock prices as firms in the bottom quintile.

Founding family ownership and the agency cost of debt

Journal of Financial Economics 2003 68(2), 263-285
We investigate the impact of founding family ownership structure on the agency cost of debt. We find that founding family ownership is common in large, publicly traded firms and is related, both statistically and economically, to a lower cost of debt financing. Our results are consistent with the idea that founding family firms have incentive structures that result in fewer agency conflicts between equity and debt claimants. This suggests that bond holders view founding family ownership as an organizational structure that better protects their interests.

An empirical examination of the role of the CEO and the compensation committee in structuring executive pay

Journal of Banking & Finance 2003 27(7), 1323-1348
Motivated by the potential for opportunistic behavior in pay decisions, recent SEC and IRS regulations essentially preclude inside directors from serving on a firm’s compensation committee (CC). We examine whether greater CC independence promotes shareholder interests and whether the CEO’s presence on the CC leads to opportunistic pay structure. We find little evidence that greater committee independence affects executive pay. Moreover, committees consisting of insiders or the CEO do not award excessive pay or lower overall incentives. For example, we find no evidence that pay decreases or total incentives increase when CEOs come off the CC. Our results suggest that regulations governing committee structure may not reduce levels of pay or achieve efficiencies in incentive contracts.

Why Cooperate? Public Goods, Economic Power, and the Montreal Protocol

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2003 85(2), 286-297
This paper develops a correlated probit model to describe dichotomous choices that may contain a public-goods component or some other forms of interdependency. The key contribution of the paper is to formulate tests for interdependent behavior among agents. In particular, we examine the decisions by nations whether or not to ratify the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Specifically, we reject free riding as a motive for not ratifying the Protocol, and we find little evidence that individual nations were influenced by the behavior of their largest trading partners. Hence, the data suggest that, with respect to the Montreal Protocol, most nations acted without regard for the actions of other nations.

International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors

American Economic Review 2003 93(4), 1216-1239
The paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business-cycle fluctuations across countries, regions, and the world. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common components in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) in a 60-country sample covering seven regions of the world. The results indicate that a common world factor is an important source of volatility for aggregates in most countries, providing evidence for a world business cycle. We find that region-specific factors play only a minor role in explaining fluctuations in economic activity. We also document similarities and differences across regions, countries, and aggregates.

Convertible Securities and Venture Capital Finance

Journal of Finance 2003 58(3), 1139-1166 open access
This paper offers a new explanation for the prevalent use of convertible securities in venture capital finance. Convertible securities can be used to endogenously allocate cash‐flow rights as a function of the state of the world and the entrepreneur's effort. This property can be used to induce the entrepreneur and the venture capitalist to invest efficiently into the project. The result is robust to renegotiation and to changes in the timing of investments and information flows. The model is consistent with the observations that conversion is often automatic and that convertible securities are rarely used by outside investors.

Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models

Econometrica 2003 71(1), 241-283
We propose a functional estimation procedure for homogeneous stochastic differential equations based on a discrete sample of observations and with minimal requirements on the data generating process. We show how to identify the drift and diffusion function in situations where one or the other function is considered a nuisance parameter. The asymptotic behavior of the estimators is examined as the observation frequency increases and as the time span lengthens. We prove almost sure consistency and weak convergence to mixtures of normal laws, where the mixing variates depend on the chronological local time of the underlying diffusion process, that is the random time spent by the process in the vicinity of a generic spatial point. The estimation method and asymptotic results apply to both stationary and nonstationary recurrent processes.

Stock exchange governance and market quality

Journal of Banking & Finance 2003 27(9), 1859-1878 open access
We show that organization structure of a stock exchange matters by utilizing the unique setting prevailing in India. India has two major stock markets, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE). These two exchanges adopt similar trading systems, trade essentially identical stocks, and follow the same trading hours. However, these exchanges have different organizational structures: BSE is mutualized whereas NSE is demutualized. Using the Hasbrouck [Review of Financial Studies 6 (1993) 191] measure of market quality we show that NSE provides a better quality market than BSE. This result is consistent with the work of Domowitz and Steil [Brookings–Wharton Papers on Financial Services, 1999], who proposed that demutualized exchanges are superior to mutualized in governance.

CEO turnover in insider-dominated boards: The Italian case

Journal of Banking & Finance 2003 27(6), 1027-1051
We investigate CEO turnover in relationship to performance, ownership concentration and CEO ownership in a sample of 60 private companies listed on the Italian Stock Exchanges over the 9-year period 1988–1996. Concentrated ownership, family control, limited institutional investors activism, and lack of main bank monitoring make Italy a corporate governance environment dominated by insiders. As a result, boards of directors are dominated by insiders and/or represent the interests of the controlling shareholders. Our main finding is that CEO turnover is negatively related to firm performance also in this environment, but this relationship holds only if the controlling shareholder is not the CEO. Our findings suggest that insiders with large stakes monitor and replace under-performing outside CEOs. The paper offers positive empirical evidence that non-CEO controlling shareholders are a governance mechanism that provides a substitute for outside members on boards of directors in lowering agency costs. When the CEO is an owner, however, we have all the negative aspects of insider-dominated boards.