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Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions

Journal of Banking & Finance 2002 26(7), 1443-1471
Fundamental properties of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), as a measure of risk with significant advantages over value-at-risk (VaR), are derived for loss distributions in finance that can involve discreetness. Such distributions are of particular importance in applications because of the prevalence of models based on scenarios and finite sampling. CVaR is able to quantify dangers beyond VaR and moreover it is coherent. It provides optimization short-cuts which, through linear programming techniques, make practical many large-scale calculations that could otherwise be out of reach. The numerical efficiency and stability of such calculations, shown in several case studies, are illustrated further with an example of index tracking.

The Economic Dilution of Employee Stock Options: Diluted EPS for Valuation and Financial Reporting

The Accounting Review 2002 77(3), 627-652
In this paper, we derive a measure of diluted EPS that incorporates the economic implications of the dilutive effects of employee stock options. We show that the existing FASB treasury-stock method of accounting for the dilutive effects of outstanding options systematically understates the options' dilutive effect, and thus overstates reported EPS. Using firm-wide data on 731 employee stock option plans, our proposed measure suggests that economic dilution from options is, on average, 100 percent greater than dilution in reported diluted EPS using the FASB treasury-stock method. We examine the implications of our analysis for stock price valuation, the price-earnings relation, and the return-earnings relation. We demonstrate analytically that when firms have options outstanding, empirical applications of equity valuation models that use reported per-share earnings as an input (e.g., Ohlson 1995) yield upwardly biased estimates of the market value of common stock. We predict that when the difference between our measure of economic dilution from options and the FASB treasury-stock method dilution from options is greater, the observed return-earnings and price-earnings coefficients will be smaller, and we provide some (albeit weak) empirical support for this prediction.

Relational Contracts and the Theory of the Firm

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002 117(1), 39-84
Relational contracts—informal agreements sustained by the value of future relationships—are prevalent within and between firms. We develop repeated-game models showing why and how relational contracts within firms (vertical integration) differ from those between (nonintegration). We show that integration affects the parties' temptations to renege on a given relational contract, and hence affects the best relational contract the parties can sustain. In this sense, the integration decision can be an instrument in the service of the parties' relationship. Our approach also has implications for joint ventures, alliances, and networks, and for the role of management within and between firms.

The Regulation of Entry

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002 117(1), 1-37 open access
Countries differ significantly in the way in which they regulate the entry of new businesses. To meet government requirements for starting to operate a business in Austria, an entrepreneur must complete 12 procedures taking at least 154 business days and pay US$11,612 in government fees. To do the same, an entrepreneur in Bolivia needs to follow 20 different procedures, pay US$2,696 in fees to the government and wait at least 82 business days to acquire the necessary permits. In contrast, an entrepreneur in Canada can finish the process in roughly 2 days by paying US$280 in government fees and completing only 2 procedures.

Does Market Incompleteness Matter?

Econometrica 2002 70(5), 1805-1839
This paper argues that incompleteness of intertemporal financial markets has little effect (on welfare, prices, or consumption) in an economy with a single consumption good, provided that traders are long–lived and patient, a riskless bond is traded, shocks are transitory, and there is no aggregate risk. In an economy with aggregate risk, a similar conclusion holds, provided traders share the same CRRA utility function and the right assets are traded. Examples demonstrate that these conclusions need not hold if the wrong assets are traded or if the economy has multiple consumption goods.

Further Evidence on the Extent and Origins of JIT's Profitability Effects

The Accounting Review 2002 77(1), 203-225
Empirical research provides scant evidence that just-in-time (JIT) adopters outperform their non-adopting industry peers. Using a sample of 201 JIT adopters and matched non-adopters, we examine the relation between financial performance and JIT. Our sample-wide results indicate that JIT adopters improve financial performance relative to non-adopters, and that profit margin, rather than asset turnover, is the primary source of such improvement. However, results of additional analyses suggest that JIT adopters below a firm-size threshold do not improve financial performance, a finding that reconciles our study to Balakrishnan et al. (1996), which examined a JIT adopter sample that included a greater proportion of small firms.

Federal Tax Legislation as an Implicit Contracting Cost Benchmark: The Definition of Excessive Executive Compensation

The Accounting Review 2002 77(4), 997-1018
We examine how tax legislation that restricted firms' deductions of CEO compensation above $1 million reduced the implicit contracting cost of compensation for firms that were expected to pay below that amount and that were not directly affected by the law change. We find that firms that expected to pay their CEOs less than $1 million actually increased their CEOs' cash compensation, contrary to Congress's expectations. Moreover, the magnitude of the unexpected increase in compensation is proportional to how far the CEO's expected compensation fell below Congress's new $1 million reasonable-compensation standard. Thus, our study provides evidence that some of the largest U.S. corporations responded in a manner contrary to policymakers' expectations. Our findings also support the theory of implicit contracting costs, by demonstrating that many firms reacted in an economically rational fashion when a change in the tax law decreased their implicit costs of CEO compensation.

The Fed and the New Economy

American Economic Review 2002 92(2), 108-114 open access
This paper seeks to understand the behavior of Greenspan's Federal Reserve in the late 1990s. Some authors suggest that the Fed followed a simple "Taylor rule," while others argue that it deviated from such a rule because it recognized that the "New Economy" permitted an easing of policy. We find that a Taylor rule based on inflation and unemployment does break down in the late 1990s. However, the Fed's behavior appears stable once one accounts for the falling NAIRU of the period. A rule based on inflation and the deviation of unemployment from the NAIRU captures the Fed's behavior through the entire period from 1987 to 2000.

Technological Change, Technological Catch-up, and Capital Deepening: Relative Contributions to Growth and Convergence

American Economic Review 2002 92(3), 527-548
We decompose labor-productivity growth into components attributable to (1) technological change (shifts in the world production frontier), (2) technological catch-up (movements toward or away from the frontier), and (3) capital accumulation (movement along the frontier). The world production frontier is constructed using deterministic methods requiring no specification of functional form for the technology nor any assumption about market structure or the absence of market imperfections. We analyze the evolution of the cross-country distribution of labor productivity in terms of the tripartite decomposition, finding that technological change is decidedly nonneutral and that both growth and bipolar international divergence are driven primarily by capital deepening.

A Commodity Price Process with a Unique Continuous Invariant Distribution Having Infinite Mean

Econometrica 2002 70(3), 1213-1219 open access
Americanae nace como un proyecto conjunto que surge dentro de la Red Europea de Información y Documentación sobre América Latina (REDIAL), y que ha afrontado la Biblioteca de la Agencia Española de Cooperación Internacional para el Desarrollo (AECID). Esta nueva biblioteca virtual hace más accesibles los libros digitales de tema americanista a los investigadores y usuarios interesados de cualquier parte del mundo.