Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions by S. Borağan Aruoba and Francis X. Diebold. Published in volume 100, issue 2, pages 20-24 of American Economic Review, May 2010

We determine how time delays affect trade, using newly collected data on the days it takes to move standard cargo from the factory gate to the ship in 98 countries. We estimate a difference gravity equation and find that each additional day that a product is delayed prior to being shipped reduces trade by more than 1%. Put differently, each day is equivalent to a country distancing itself from its trade partners by about 70 km on average. We also find that delays have a relatively greater impact on exports of time-sensitive goods, such as perishable agricultural products.

ABSTRACT We propose a latent variables approach within a present‐value model to estimate the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates information contained in the history of price‐dividend ratios and dividend growth rates to predict future returns and dividend growth rates. We find that returns and dividend growth rates are predictable with values ranging from 8.2% to 8.9% for returns and 13.9% to 31.6% for dividend growth rates. Both expected returns and expected dividend growth rates have a persistent component, but expected returns are more persistent than expected dividend growth rates.

Despite widely documented criticisms, price-limit rules are present in many equity markets around the world. Using a game-theoretic model, we argue that, if the cost of monitoring a market is high, price-limit rules are beneficial. Empirical tests based on a cross section of 43 equity markets across five continents support our theoretical prediction. We find that the probability of the existence of price-limit rules is greater in markets that incur higher monitoring costs due to poorer business disclosure, more corruption and less efficiency in legal, regulatory and technological environments.

We model claim arrival and loss uncertainties jointly in a doubly-binomial framework to price an Asian-style catastrophe (CAT) option with a non-traded underlying loss index using the no-arbitrage martingale pricing methodology. We span these uncertainties by benchmarking to the shadow price of a one-claim bond and the premium of a reinsurance contract. We implement a stochastic time change from calendar time to claim time to more efficiently price the CAT option as a random sum – a binomial sum of claim time binomial Asian option prices. This choice of the operational time dimension allows us to incorporate different patterns of catastrophe arrivals by adjusting the claim arrival probability. We demonstrate this versatility by incorporating a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck intensity arrival process. Simulation results verify our model predictions and demonstrate how the claim arrival probability varies with the expected claim arrival intensity.

Long Run Risk, the Wealth-Consumption Ratio, and the Temporal Pricing of Risk by Ralph S. J. Koijen, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Adrien Verdelhan. Published in volume 100, issue 2, pages 552-56 of American Economic Review, May 2010

We test for customer discrimination with data from more than 800 retail stores employing over 70,000 individuals matched to census data on the demographics of each store's community. While our tests detect some increase in sales when the workforce more closely resembles potential customers, the effects we find are modest in magnitude. Customer discrimination is neither strong nor pervasive. We find little payoff to matching employee demographics to those of potential customers except when the customers do not speak English.

ABSTRACT: We examine how management quarterly guidance strategy is affected by various outcomes from previously issued guidance. We find that managers are less likely to provide quarterly earnings guidance for a given year when past management forecasts have been overly optimistic, when past forecasts were unsuccessful at influencing analysts’ expectations, when past forecasts failed to reduce information asymmetry, and when past forecasts resulted in earnings disappointments. For firms that continue to give guidance, adverse prior outcomes also affect the precision of future guidance and the number of quarters within a year for which they give guidance.

We show that “commodity currency” exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policy makers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward-looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances.

ABSTRACT Collateral constraints imply that financing and risk management are fundamentally linked. The opportunity cost of engaging in risk management and conserving debt capacity to hedge future financing needs is forgone current investment, and is higher for more productive and less well‐capitalized firms. More constrained firms engage in less risk management and may exhaust their debt capacity and abstain from risk management, consistent with empirical evidence and in contrast to received theory. When cash flows are low, such firms may be unable to seize investment opportunities and be forced to downsize. Consequently, capital may be less productively deployed in downturns.