Knowledge that Transforms

A two-step time-series and cross-section model is used to estimate time-of-day (TOD) demand for electricity or natural gas and to demonstrate an efficient computational method. Post-sample validation of the model results in several regions found average forecast errors in the aceptable range of 4.5% to 15%. Future hourly electricity-demand forecasts made for 32 regions using an historical trend scenario and a Data Resources Inc. macro model scenario indicate a good potential for the model. 12 references. (DCK)

Hiroshi Miyashita, Paul Newbold, Adam M. Pilarski, Julian L. Simon, The Effect of Population Growth upon the Quantity of Education Children Receive: A Reply, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 64, No. 2 (May, 1982), pp. 352-355

Kuznets, Simon, Growth and Inequality, American Economic Revtiew 45 (March 1955), 1-28. Long, James E., David W. Rasmussen, and Charles T. Haworth, Income Inequality and City Size, this REVIEW 59 (May 1977), 244-246. Paglin, Morton, The Measurement and Trend of Inequality: A Basic Revision, American Economic Review 65 (Sept. 1975), 598-609. Sale, Tom S. III, Interstate Analysis of Size Distribution of Family Income, 1950-1970, Southern Economic Journal 40 (Jan. 1974), 434-441. Smith, Donald Mitchell, and E. James Jennings, The Distribution of State Incomes: Differential Growth of Sectoral Employment,' American Economic Review 66 (Sept. 1976), 717-721. Smolensky, Eugene, Industrialization and Inequality-Recent U.S. Experience, Papers on the Regional Science Association 7 (1961), 67-88. , An Interrelationship among Distributions, this REVIEW 45 (May 1963), 197-206. Tam, Mo-Yin S., and Joseph Persky, Direct and Indirect Effects of Regional Convergence on National Inequality, University of Illinois at Chicago Circle, College of Business Administration Working Paper (1981). U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Consumer Income, Series P-60, No. 118 (Mar. 1979).

This paper is an econometric analysis of the on-the-job training (OJT) decisions of a group of white American males during 1975. The data are obtained from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, which asked a very careful series of questions concerning the individual's OJT status. Each individual's internal rate of return is estimated and used as an explanatory variable to predict the probability of taking OJT. The individual's marginal tax rate is also entered in the equation. The results suggest that income taxation has tended to increase the probability of being involved in OJT. I conjecture that this is because income taxation makes investment in physical capital a less desirable vehicle for carrying consumption into the future, and hence increases the attractiveness of human capital.

THE primary purpose of this work is to conduct an empirical investigation concerning the role of in consumption, and to test a few postulates of the wealth theories of consumption. The opportunity for such an investigation is provided by the recent publication by Kendrick (1976) of annual data on human and nonhuihan for the United States for the period 1929-69. Specifically, the paper (a) provides estimates of a consumption function in which a variable is included in addition to the income variable; (b) compares the responses of consumption expenditures to changes in human and nonhuman and tests empirically Friedman's hypothesis (1957, p. 17) regarding the effect on consumption of an increase in nonhuman relative to total wealth; and (c) throws some light on the stock adjustment' and habit persistence' postulates by reporting estimates for equations in which a lagged consumption term is added to the variables. The organization of the paper follows the aspects stated above. After a discussion of some methodological questions, we provide estimates of the parameters of consumption functions that include as a distinct variable in addition to income, and show that the variable has significant coefficients, and the coefficients look plausible. The income variable coefficients are substantial, and while being consistent with the life cycle' hypothesis are not necessarily inconsistent with Friedman's theory. Next, we discuss the separate effects of human and nonhuman on consumption. The evidence seems to favor Friedman's postulate that an increase in nonhuman wealth, relative to the total, increases consumption. Estimation of separate equations for (a) durable goods and (b) nondurables and services, by including a lagged consumption term in addition to the variables, suggests that the coefficient pattern can be interpreted as indicative of a stronger habit formation' effect for nondurables and services than for durables. A summarizing section concludes the paper.

Young Chin Kim, The Cross-Sectional, Inter-Industry Structure of Capital Utilization in a Developing Economy: The Case of S. Korean Manufacturing, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 64, No. 1 (Feb., 1982), pp. 84-89

Aaron (ed.), Inflation and the Income Tax (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1976). Tanzi, Vito, Measuring the Sensitivity of the Federal Income Tax from Cross-section Data: A New Approach, this REVIEW 51 (2) (1969), 206-209. , 'The Sensitivity of the Yield of the U.S. Individual Income Tax and the Tax Reforms of the Past Decade, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 23 (2) (1976), 441-454. United States Statistical Abstract (annually), U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. Verway, David I., 'A Ranking of States by Inequality Using Census and Tax Data, this REVIEW 48 (3) (1966), 314-321.