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Indirect Persuasion

Journal of Political Economy 2026 134(4), 1210-1244
We provide an organizational economics foundation for commitment to information structures in persuasion. An uninformed principal faces a joint screening-and-persuasion problem: she wants to influence a receiver’s beliefs about a payoff-relevant state using information elicited from a privately informed agent. The principal cannot act as an intermediary that commits to an optimal garbling of the agent’s private communications; instead, the agent’s messages are all publicly observed by the receiver. We show that the principal can still (indirectly) implement the optimal unconstrained intermediation scheme. Commitment only to an employment contract with the agent suffices for optimal persuasion of the receiver. We apply our result to the context of a brokerage contracting with a sell-side analyst, where private communication is constrained by conflict-of-interest regulations. We show that a public communication scheme—which closely corresponds to the investment ratings schemes observed in practice—can sidestep these regulations.

When It Rains It Pours: Cascading Uncertainty Shocks

Journal of Political Economy 2024 132(2), 000-000
The effects of uncertainty shocks are superadditive. On the basis of local projections, we find that the combination of nearby positive shocks can be multiple times more powerful than the sum of their stand-alone effects. In a standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, uncertainty shocks are proven to be superadditive only when the model is solved under fourth- (or higher-)order perturbation. The fourth-order solution unlocks the fourth derivative of marginal utility, “edginess,” which is key to generating stronger reactions to multiple risks and superadditivity. Intuitively, an agent already bearing one risk is less willing to bear another in the presence of edginess.

Collusion in Markets with Syndication

Journal of Political Economy 2020 128(10), 3779-3819 open access
Many markets are syndicated, including those for initial public offerings, club deal leveraged buyouts, and debt issuances; in such markets, each winning bidder invites competitors to join a syndicate to complete production. We show that in syndicated markets, collusion may become easier as market concentration falls and market entry may facilitate collusion. In particular, firms can sustain collusion by refusing to syndicate with any firm that undercuts the collusive price, thereby raising that firm’s production costs. Our results can thus rationalize the paradoxical empirical observations that many real-world syndicated markets exhibit seemingly collusive pricing despite low levels of market concentration.

The Value of Flexible Work: Evidence from Uber Drivers

Journal of Political Economy 2019 127(6), 2735-2794
Technology has facilitated new, nontraditional work arrangements, including the ride-sharing company Uber. Uber drivers provide rides anytime they choose. Using data on hourly earnings and driving, we document driver utilization of this real-time flexibility. We propose that the value of flexibility can be measured as deriving from time variation in the drivers' reservation wage. Measuring time variation in drivers' reservation wages allows us to estimate the surplus and labor supply implications of Uber relative to alternative, less-flexible work arrangements. Despite other drawbacks to the Uber arrangement, we estimate that Uber drivers earn more than twice the surplus they would in less-flexible arrangements.

Risky Business: The Market for Unprotected Commercial Sex

Journal of Political Economy 2005 113(3), 518-550
While condoms are an effective defense against the transmission of HIV, large numbers of sex workers are not using them. We argue that some sex workers are willing to take the risk because clients are willing to pay more to avoid using condoms. Using data from Mexico, we estimate that sex workers received a 23 percent premium for unprotected sex. The premium represents a value of one life year of between $14,760 and $51,832 or one to five times annual earnings. The premium jumped to 46 percent if the sex worker was considered very attractive, a measure of bargaining power.

What's in a Name? Initial Evidence of U.S. Audit Partner Identification Using Difference-in-Differences Analyses

The Accounting Review 2019 94(5), 139-163
We investigate changes in the quality and cost of audit services surrounding PCAOB Rule 3211, which requires disclosure of audit partner names in Form AP. To isolate changes due to Rule 3211 from other confounding factors, we use difference-in-differences analyses with separate control groups, including a group of companies that disclosed partner identities prior to Rule 3211. Our study also incorporates several measures from prior literature to proxy for various dimensions of audit quality. Evidence from the difference-in-differences analyses reveals that any immediate impact of Rule 3211 on audit quality or fees is limited to specific dimensions of audit quality, specific control groups, and/or specific company characteristics. We reach this conclusion after considering alternative research designs and evaluating confidence intervals for statistically insignificant coefficients. We caution that our findings only provide initial evidence and further research is necessary to evaluate other potential impacts of Rule 3211.

Hedge Fund Voluntary Disclosure

The Accounting Review 2018 93(2), 117-135
Using a dataset of 3,234 letters sent by 434 hedge funds to their investors during 1995–2011, we study what motivates hedge fund managers to make voluntary disclosures. Contrary to the hedge fund industry's reputation for opacity, we observe that managers provide their investors with an array of quantitative and qualitative information about fund returns, risk exposures, holdings, benchmarks, performance attribution, and future prospects. We find that the tensions between the agency costs faced by investors and the proprietary costs faced by managers affect fund disclosures. Consistent with managers reducing proprietary costs, better-performing funds disclose less quantitative data about performance and holdings, and consistent with the presence of agency costs, riskier funds disclose less quantitative information about performance and assets under management.

The Timeliness of Bad Earnings News and Litigation Risk

The Accounting Review 2012 87(6), 1967-1991
This study investigates whether the timely revelation of bad earnings news is associated with a lower incidence of litigation. The timeliness of earnings news is captured by a new measure based on the evolution of the consensus analyst earnings forecast. Holding total bad earnings news and other determinants of litigation constant, we find that earlier revelation of bad earnings news lowers the likelihood of litigation. This result holds for both settled and dismissed lawsuits. Further, we reconcile our findings with prior work that measures timeliness using managerial warnings via press releases. These tests suggest our findings are attributable to the ability of our timeliness measure to capture bad earning news revealed through disclosure channels beyond press releases. Data Availability: Data are available from public sources identified in the paper.

A Returns-Based Representation of Earnings Quality

The Accounting Review 2006 81(4), 749-780
We examine the properties of a returns-based representation of earnings quality, estimated from firm-specific asset-pricing regressions augmented by an earnings quality mimicking factor. The coefficient on the earnings quality factor (the “e-loading”) captures the sensitivity of the firm's returns to earnings quality in a given year or quarter, analogous to beta as a measure of the sensitivity of returns to market movements. Relative to other proxies for earnings quality, e-loadings can be calculated for larger samples of firms and can be estimated for shorter intervals at any point in time. Along all dimensions examined, we find that e-loadings perform well in capturing notions of earnings quality.