This paper examines the dynamic relations – causal relations and the sign and magnitude of dynamic effects – between stock market trading volume and returns (and volatility) for both domestic and cross-country markets by using the daily data of the three largest stock markets: New York, Tokyo, and London. Major findings are as follows: First, trading volume does not Granger-cause stock market returns on each of three stock markets. Second, there exists a positive feedback relationship between trading volume and return volatility in all three markets. Third, regarding the cross-country relationships, US financial market variables, in particular US trading volume, contains an extensive predictive power for UK and Japanese financial market variables. Fourth, sub-sample analyses show evidence of stronger spillover effects after the 1987 market crash and an increased importance of trading volume as an information variable after the introduction of options in the US and Japan.

Using a recently released confidential data set from the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES), we find some evidence of “white flight” from public schools into private schools partly in response to minority schoolchildren. We also examine whether white flight is from all minorities or only from certain minority groups, delineated by race or income. We find that white families are fleeing public schools with large concentrations of poor minority schoolchildren. In addition, the clearest flight appears to occur from poor black schoolchildren. The results for white flight from Asians and Hispanics are less clear.

In contemporary data, the measured factor content of trade is far smaller than its predicted magnitude in the pure Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework, the so-called 'missing trade' mystery. Authors wonder if this problem has been there from the beginning: that is, authors ask if the Heckscher-Ohlin theory was so much at odds with reality at its time of conception. Authors apply contemporary tests to historical data, focusing on the major trading zone that inspired the factor abundance theory, the Old and New Worlds of the pre-1914 'Greater Atlantic' economy. This places autor's analysis in a very different context than contemporary studies: an era with lower trade barriers, higher transport costs, a more skewed global distribution of the relevant factors (especially land), and comparably large productivity divergence. These conditions might seem more favorable to the theory, but the results are still very poor.

Robert E. Lucas, Jr.:' January 2002 issue of the Atlantic contains an article by Benjamin Schwarz and Christopher Layne called A New Grand Strategy. article deplores the role of the United States in the Middle East, which the authors interpret as derived from a perceived need to ensure the availability of from that region. As the authors observe, America derives most of its from Alaska, Canada, the continental United States, Mexico, and Venezuela. About 25 percent of U.S. petroleum imports come from the Persian Gulf. If the United States adopted a national energy strategy it could free itself from dependence on Persian Gulf oil (p. 37). They go on to advocate doing this, and leaving Middle East politics to other, still dependent powers. They explain: The role the United States has assigned itself in the Persian Gulf has made it-not Japan, not the states of Western Europe, not China-vulnerable to a backlash (p. 38). Schwarz and Layne article is a good example of what W. Lee Hansen et al. (2002 [preceding paper, this issue]) call illiteracy. Its entire argument is based on the market for oil, but the authors do not have even an Economics 101 understanding of what a market is. They construct a vision of a new U.S. foreign policy based on a wholly arbitrary matching up of particular buyers of a homogeneous good with particular sellers of the good. We will exercise hegemony in Mexico and Venezuela, they say, and let the Japanese take care of the Middle East. example illustrates three points emphasized in Use or Lose It: Teaching Literacy in the Economics Principles Course (this issue, preceding paper). First, economic illiteracy often is an affliction of the well-educated: Schwarz and Layne are articulate experts in foreign affairs. Second, economic illiteracy can be dangerous: there is more at stake than bad answers to our exam questions. Third, the ignorance involved is not ignorance of the research tools of technical economics. should not be necessary to be handy with fixed-point theorems in order to avoid mistakes like the one Schwarz and Layne make. Use or Lose It has two main theses. first is that we can and should promote economic literacy by redesigning the first collegelevel economics course (one semester) to teach principles, not methods. second is that we can use a list of 20 Content Standards provided by the National Council on Economic Education to define what it means to teach principles. I have misgivings about both these theses, to which I turn in a moment. I must say at the outset, though, that my criticism will be almost entirely nonconstructive: I agree that introductory economics needs to be reinvented, but I do not claim to know how to do it. In criticizing introductory economics courses and textbooks, the authors lament the increasingly technical nature of the course and cite others who share this view. Nostalgia is expressed (in a quote from McConnell, not a direct statement by these authors) for a 1946 text of Frank Taussig's that predates even my ancient training by 15 years! would be hard to think of a surer way to discourage the most able students from pursuing a career in economics than to offer them a 50-year-old textbook on the grounds that P. J. O'Rourke did not like graphs. Imagine proposing such a thing to an association of physicists or chemists or, for that matter, musicologists! Knowledge is cumulative-a fact that should make us happy, not sad. One of our jobs as teachers is to help our most eager and creative students get to the knowledge frontier as fast as they want to go. In the natural sciences and the arts, introductory courses are professionally oriented basic-training courses on which one can build a creative career. Economics students deserve as much. problem with leaving the matter at this is that introductory science courses tend to be useless for nonmajors. Indeed, levels of physics literacy, chemistry literacy, and musical literacy among well-educated people are in no better shape than economics literacy. This is the classic case against letting each student design his 'Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1126 East 59th St., Chicago, IL 60637.

We present evidence that the equity premium and the premium of value stocks over growth stocks are consistent in the 198296 period with a stochastic discount factor calculated as the weighted average of individual households' marginal rate of substitution with low and economically plausible values of the relative risk aversion coefficient. Since these premia are not explained with an SDF calculated as the per capita marginal rate of substitution with a low value of the RRA coefficient, the evidence supports the hypothesis of incomplete consumption insurance. We also present evidence that an SDF calculated as the per capita marginal rate of substitution is better able to explain the equity premium and does so with a lower value of the RRA coefficient, as the definition of asset holders is tightened to recognize the limited participation of households in the capital market.

We investigate the hypothesis that the combination of three related innovations—1) information technology (IT), 2) complementary workplace reorganization, and 3) new products and services—constitute a significant skill-biased technical change affecting labor demand in the United States. Using detailed firm-level data, we find evidence of complementarities among all three of these innovations in factor demand and productivity regressions. In addition, firms that adopt these innovations tend to use more skilled labor. The effects of IT on labor demand are greater when IT is combined with the particular organizational investments we identify, highlighting the importance of IT-enabled organizational change.

In nonrenewable resource industries, the existence of a markup of price over marginal market cost may reflect the existence of an implicit user cost for the resource rather than market power. We show that valid estimates of market power can be obtained by the joint estimation of a restricted cost function and an inverse supply relation. Estimation of the model with data for the largest firm in the international nickel industry indicates that output price substantially exceeded marginal market cost, with most of the difference due to the exercise of market power rather than the user cost of the resource.

Using a model of market making with inventories based on Biais (1993), we find that investors obtain more favorable execution prices, and they hence invest more, when markets are fragmented. In our model, risk‐averse dealers use less aggressive price strategies in more transparent markets (centralized) because quote dissemination alleviates uncertainty about the prices quoted by other dealers and, hence, reduces the need to compete aggressively for order flow. Further, we show that the move toward greater transparency (centralization) may have detrimental effects on liquidity and welfare.

We examine the long‐term stock performance following dividend initiations and resumptions from 1927 to 1998. We show that postannouncement abnormal returns are significantly positive for equally weighted calendar time portfolios, but become insignificant when the portfolios are value weighted. Moreover, the equally weighted results are not robust across subsamples. We also document postannouncement reductions in the risk factor loadings of underlying stocks. Cross‐sectionally, these reductions are negatively related to the contemporaneous price drifts, suggesting the price drifts may be a sample‐specific result of chance. Our results underscore the importance of testing for changes in risk loadings in future long‐term event studies.

Many firms deploy takeover defenses when they go public. IPO managers tend to deploy defenses when their compensation is high, shareholdings are small, and oversight from nonmanagerial shareholders is weak. The presence of a defense is negatively related to subsequent acquisition likelihood, yet has no impact on takeover premiums for firms that are acquired. These results do not support arguments that takeover defenses facilitate the eventual sale of IPO firms at high takeover premiums. Rather, they suggest that managers shift the cost of takeover protection onto nonmanagerial shareholders. Thus, agency problems are important even for firms at the IPO stage.