Today's financial system is dominated by markets with institutions connected by short-term financing, securitization, derivatives, and other means. Yet regulations have focused on depositories, leaving regulators unprepared for the 2008 crisis. We suggest two key principles for regulatory reform. First, some changes in the financial system came as institutions lowered the burden of regulations through “regulatory arbitrage.” Reform needs to avoid driving businesses “into the shadows,” where risks may accumulate and sow seeds of future crises. Second, reform ought to improve transparency to reduce uncertainty and inter-linkages between players. We evaluate some of Dodd-Frank Act in light of these principles.

This article develops a general equilibrium model of multiple-product, multiple-destination firms, which allows for heterogeneity in ability across firms and in product attributes within firms. Firms make endogenous entry and exit decisions and each surviving firm chooses optimally the range of products to supply to each market. We show that the resulting selection, across and within firms, provides a natural explanation for a number of features of trade across firms, products, and countries. Using both time-series changes in trade policy and cross-section variation in trade, we provide empirical evidence in support of the predictions of the model.

Recent accounting scandals have resulted in regulatory initiatives designed to strengthen audit committee oversight of corporate financial reporting and have led to a concern that U.S. GAAP has become too rules-based. We examine issues related to these initiatives using two experiments. CFOs in our experiments exhibit more agreement and are less likely to report aggressively under a less precise (more principles-based) standard than under a more precise (more rules-based) standard. Our results also indicate that CFOs applying a more precise standard are less likely to report aggressively in the presence of a strong audit committee than a weak audit committee. We find no effect of audit committee strength when the standard is less precise. Finally, we find support for a three-path mediating model examining mechanisms driving the effect of standard precision on aggressive reporting decisions. These results should be of interest to U.S. policymakers as they continue to contemplate a shift to more principles-based accounting standards (e.g., IFRS).

We examine how informed trading activities affect the market reaction to accounting restatements. We find significantly less negative reactions to accounting restatements when managers are net purchasers of stock before the restatement, and significantly more negative market reactions when managers are net sellers. Similar patterns characterize corporate trading, where prior stock repurchases dampen negative reactions and prior equity issuances increase negative reactions to the restatement. We address the possibility of reverse causality in which informed trades are undertaken because of the expected market reaction by examining the difference between disclosed and non-disclosed trades, finding that the market reaction is concentrated in the disclosed trades. Our results are incremental to general return patterns associated with insider trading and corporate equity transactions, and hold after controlling for other determinants of the market reaction to restatements. Taken together, these findings suggest that investors use informed trading activities to help interpret and price accounting restatements. JEL Classifications: M41, M42. Data Availability: Data are publicly available from the sources identified in the study.

Exploiting a natural experiment in which voluntary audits replace mandatory audits for U.K. private companies, we analyze whether imposing audits suppresses valuable information about the types of companies that would voluntarily choose to be audited. We control for the assurance benefits of auditing to isolate the role signaling plays by focusing on companies that are audited under both regimes. These companies experience no change in audit assurance, although they can now reveal for the first time their desire to be audited. We find that these companies attract upgrades to their credit ratings because they send a positive signal by submitting to an audit when this is no longer legally required. In contrast, companies that dispense with being audited suffer downgrades to their ratings because avoiding an audit sends a negative signal and removes its assurance value. Data Availability: All data are available from public sources.

Following the 1997/1998 financial crisis, Indonesian banks experienced major regulatory changes, including the adoption of the blanket guarantee scheme (BGS) in 1998, a limited guarantee (LG) in 2005, and changes in capital regulation in 1998 and 2001. We examine the impact of these regulatory changes on market discipline during the period 1995–2009. The price of deposits is used to measure market discipline in a dynamic panel data methodology on a sample of 104 commercial banks. We find a weakening of market discipline following the introduction of the BGS. The result is consistent with the deposit insurance scheme being credible in the lower capital requirement environment. The adoption of LG in a recovering economy also mitigates the role of market discipline. However, market discipline is more pronounced in listed banks than unlisted banks and in foreign banks than domestic banks. These results have important implications for banking regulation and supervision, particularly during a crisis period.

Using Current Population Survey and US Army administrative data, we document that between 2000 and 2010, the employment rate of Vietnam era veterans fell markedly relative to non-veterans of the same cohorts while simultaneously their enrollment increased steeply in the Veterans Disability Compensation (DC) program, which provides healthcare and transfer payments to veterans with service-connected disabilities. Thirty percent of Vietnam era Army veterans enrolled in DC in 2006 received benefits for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, with median annual payments of $25,500. The declining employment and rising transfer payments to Vietnam era veterans underscore the long-term private and public costs of wartime service, potentially stemming from both adverse health consequences and policies that have expanded benefits eligibility.

We consider estimation of population averages when data are missing at random. If some cells contain few observations, there can be substantial gains from imposing parametric restrictions on the cell means, but there is also a danger of misspecification. We develop a simple empirical Bayes estimator, which combines parametric and unadjusted estimates of cell means in a data-driven way. We also consider ways to use knowledge of the form of the propensity score to increase robustness. We develop an empirical Bayes extension of a double robust estimator. In a small simulation study, the empirical Bayes estimators perform well. They are similar to fully nonparametric methods and robust to misspecification when cells are moderate to large in size, and when cells are small they maintain the benefits of parametric methods and can have lower sampling variance.

Newly developed historical time series on public debt, along with data on external debts, allow a deeper analysis of the debt cycles underlying serial debt and banking crises. We test three related hypotheses at both “world” aggregate levels and on an individual country basis. First, external debt surges are an antecedent to banking crises. Second, banking crises (domestic and those in financial centers) often precede or accompany sovereign debt crises; we find they help predict them. Third, public borrowing surges ahead of external sovereign default, as governments have “hidden domestic debts” that exceed the better documented levels of external debt.

We provide evidence on the effects of SFAS 133 on the risk relevance of accounting measures of bank derivative exposures to bond markets. First, we find that interest rate derivatives classified as hedging are more negatively associated with fixed-rate bond spreads after SFAS 133. We also find that hedging derivatives offset non-trading positions to a greater extent after SFAS 133. Second, for the largest 25 banks, we find that interest and foreign exchange rate trading derivatives are more negatively associated with fixed-rate bond spreads after SFAS 133, consistent with more economic hedges being classified as trading after SFAS 133. For these banks, trading derivative exposures offset non-derivative trading exposures to a greater extent after SFAS 133. Our results suggest that, contrary to critics’ claims, SFAS 133 has increased the risk relevance of accounting measures of derivative exposures to bond investors and benefited banks in terms of reducing their cost of capital.