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Unemployment: Okun's Law, Labor Force, and Productivity

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1974 56(2), 167
ONE of the most important relationships I in economics is that between the production of real output on the one side and the employment and unemployment of labor on the other. In the familiar breakdown of an economy into its simplest functions a goods market, a labor market, and one or more financing markets1 this relationship comprises the interface between the goods market and the labor market. The relationship is all the more important in that a number of researchers have connected price movements in the goods market directly to quantity movements in the labor market, relying upon both theories of administered pricing and empirical observations of Phillips curve phenomena. Much of current economic thinking relies on the same approach to incorporating the outputunemployment relationship into a macroeconomic framework: Both Keynesians and Chicago school monetarists typically apply their varied apparati to explaining or forecasting movements in real output, and then rely on some type of Okun's Law (1962) formulation to move from real output to a discussion of unemployment. A variant adopted by some neoclassical theorists is to use prices, wages and expectational variables to explain movements in labor market variables -employment or unemployment; these writers then revert, however, to some simplified structure such as the inverse of Okun's Law to move from the labor market to the goods market. For either group, the behavior of whichever market is of primary interest takes precedence over the relationship between the two markets. The object of this paper is to focus clearly on the goods market -labor market nexus. The paper derives and estimates an empirical relationship of Okun's form and shows that this relationship is more complex and merits more explicit attention than the current literature implies. In particular, Okun's approach of estimating the unemployment rate directly constitutes an alternative to estimating employment and labor force separately, and using an identity to solve for the unemployment rate, apart from Okun's paper; this approach has largely predominated in the literature of labor market economics.2 Especially from the standpoint of economic forecasting, at least one revealed weakness of the more commonly used indirect approach has been, in recent experience, its inability to generate accurate predictions of the unemployment rate. Errors made in the various equations of the analysis apparently have not been on the whole sufficiently offsetting to render the indirect approach adequate for forecasting and applied policy work. In this context a single direct unemployment equation may have appeal over a model in which the unemployment forecast is the residual which represents the difference between the labor demand forecast and the labor supply forecast.3 The primary output of the paper is, therefore, an unemployment equation which takes real output as given and introduces other independent variables to improve the specification of the goods market labor market relationship. Hence it is also necessary to

Experiment in Modularized Learning for Intermediate Accounting.

The Accounting Review 1974 49(2), 385-390
The article reports that intermediate accounting is generally considered to be the most important course in the accounting curriculum. Students frequently make their decision concerning accounting as a major based upon their success or lack there of in intermediate accounting. The subject matter of this course is central to all aspects of accounting, and if the material presented is mastered well, a student not only will have a satisfying educational experience, but he will also have a strong foundation for his accounting career. At Brigham Young University (BYU) great differences in student performance in intermediate accounting have been found. Factors that apparently were contributing to the differences in performance were: the large number of students who had transferred from other colleges and universities; the extended time delay between the students' introductory accounting courses and their intermediate accounting course, aggravated at BYU because of the large number of students who interrupt their college program for military or church service; the differences in the students' mastery of the basic accounting concepts; the differences in the students' aptitude for accounting study; and the curriculum at BYU which permits a student to begin intermediate accounting with either one or two introductory courses in accounting.

Fairness and Envy

American Economic Review 1974
Standard neoclassical economic analysis is typically concerned with individual utility maximization. In this paper we shall consider a problem of constrained social welfare maximization. Our criterion of social welfare is and we shall discuss how this may be maximized by a move from an initial allocation to a final fairer allocation, subject to the constraint that no one be made worse off by the move. We think the goal of fairness maximization characterizes, albeit in a simplistic way, the goals pursued by enlightened governments in their redistributional policies. We shall also discuss a concept of complete fairness and illustrate some of its weaknesses. The fairness problem is ancient and dates back at least to classical Greece. It has been treated recently by mathematicians who typically are concerned with the existence of a of a nonuniform object among n persons; that is, a division with the property that each party thinks he is getting at least t/nth of the value of the object. (See, for example, Lester Dubins and Edwin Spanier, Harold Kuhn, and Hugo Steinhaus.) This is not the approach we will take, since we will assume a world of homogeneous infinitely divisible goods in which the mathematical fair division problem becomes trivial. The concept of fairness has also been treated extensively by philosophers. The most recent philosophical approach is that of John Rawls, who argues at length for a social contract theory of justice: a society which maximizes the welfare of its worst off members is most just and that is the sort of society people will, from an initial position of ignorance about their endowments and interests, contract to enter. Rawls' approach has been extended to a theory of taxation by Edmund Phelps. Again, Rawlsian fairness, or justice, is not the fairness we are interested in; we do not assume a precontractual state of ignorance, we do assume that knowledge of wealth and tastes is given. In fact, knowledge about one's own and others' bundles of goods is crucial in our discussion. What then is our notion of fairness? It is fairness in the sense of non-envy. A completely fair social state is one in which no citizen would prefer what another has to what he himself has; a relatively fair social state is one in which few citizens would prefer what others have to what they themselves have; a totally unfair state is one in which every citizen finds his position to be inferior to that of everyone else. This concept of fairness is appealing because it only depends, like other economic concepts, on individual tastes and endowments. Fairness in the non-envy sense has been discussed in several recent papers by economists. Serge Christophe Kolm considers allocative fairness, and shows that there exist allocations which are both completely fair and efficient.' David Schmeidler and Karl Vind define fair trades as