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Collusion in Markets with Syndication

Journal of Political Economy 2020 128(10), 3779-3819 open access
Many markets are syndicated, including those for initial public offerings, club deal leveraged buyouts, and debt issuances; in such markets, each winning bidder invites competitors to join a syndicate to complete production. We show that in syndicated markets, collusion may become easier as market concentration falls and market entry may facilitate collusion. In particular, firms can sustain collusion by refusing to syndicate with any firm that undercuts the collusive price, thereby raising that firm’s production costs. Our results can thus rationalize the paradoxical empirical observations that many real-world syndicated markets exhibit seemingly collusive pricing despite low levels of market concentration.

Mobile Devices and Investment News Apps: The Effects of Information Release, Push Notification, and the Fear of Missing Out

The Accounting Review 2020 95(5), 95-115
ABSTRACT We examine how information dissemination via mobile device applications (apps) affects nonprofessional investors' judgments. In response to the prevalence of mobile device use, the media ungroups content into smaller pieces to accommodate users, and apps use push notifications to highlight this content. These changes increase users' ability to access investment information in real time, leaving some investors feeling as if they are missing out if they are not continuously connected. We validate a scale to capture investors' fear of missing out on investment information (I-FoMO) and document that I-FoMO is distinct from traditional FoMO that occurs in social settings. Then, using an experiment, we find that receiving ungrouped content via a mobile device has a greater effect on investment allocations in the presence, rather than absence, of push notifications. Further, we find that these results hold for higher, but not for lower, I-FoMO investors. JEL Classifications: G23; M41; M48; M49. Data Availability: Contact the authors.

The Use of Regression Statistics to Analyze Imperfect Pricing Policies

Journal of Political Economy 2020 128(5), 1826-1876 open access
Corrective taxes can solve many market failures, but actual policies frequently deviate from the theoretical ideal because of administrative or political constraints. We present a method to quantify the efficiency costs of constraints on externality-correcting policies or, more generally, the costs of imperfect pricing, using simple regression statistics. Under certain conditions, the R2 and the sum of squared residuals from a regression of true externalities on policy variables measure relative welfare gains from policies. We illustrate via four empirical applications: random mismeasurement of externalities, imperfect electricity pricing, heterogeneity in the longevity of energy-consuming durable goods, and imperfect spatial policy differentiation.

Do Type II Subsequent Events Impair Financial Reporting Quality?

The Accounting Review 2020 95(6), 97-123
ABSTRACT This study examines whether material corporate events that occur during the year-end closing process constrain management's and the auditor's resources and inhibit them from providing high-quality financial reports. For a sample of U.S. company financial reports issued during 2000–2013, we identify material corporate events using Type II subsequent event footnote disclosures (i.e., material events that occur in year t+1, but prior to the issuance of the year t financial statements, yet do not affect amounts recognized in year t). We find that Type II subsequent events are associated with lower financial reporting quality, as measured by the need to subsequently restate the year t financial statements. The increased restatement likelihood only occurs when managers are resource-constrained. Auditors can mitigate the increased restatement risk, but only when they allocate more resources to the engagement. Our results underscore the importance of resource management in the financial reporting and audit processes.

A/B Testing with Fat Tails

Journal of Political Economy 2020 128(12), 4614-000
We propose a new framework for optimal experimentation, which we term the “A/B testing problem.” Our model departs from the existing literature by allowing for fat tails. Our key insight is that the optimal strategy depends on whether most gains accrue from typical innovations or from rare, unpredictable large successes. If the tails of the unobserved distribution of innovation quality are not too fat, the standard approach of using a few high-powered “big” experiments is optimal. However, if the distribution is very fat tailed, a “lean” strategy of trying more ideas, each with possibly smaller sample sizes, is preferred. Our theoretical results, along with an empirical analysis of Microsoft Bing’s EXP platform, suggest that simple changes to business practices could increase innovation productivity.