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Resolving Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Stock and Bond Markets

Review of Finance 2009 13(1), 1-45 open access
We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied volatilities of stock and bond options when the economic data is released. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with greater reduction in implied volatilities following the news release. It is also associated with increased volume and decreased open interest in option markets after the release, consistent with market participants using financial options to hedge or speculate on macroeconomic news.

Financial Intermediation and the Theory of Agency

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1978 13(4), 595
Dennis W. Draper, James W. Hoag, Financial Intermediation and the Theory of Agency, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 13, No. 4, Proceedings of Thirteenth Annual Conference of the Western Finance Association, June 20-26, 1978 (Nov., 1978), pp. 595-611

Some Evidence on the Effect of Company Size on the Cost of Equity Capital

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1973 8(2), 229
The objective of this paper is to carry out tests of the general hypothesis, most recently urged by Scherer [14, pp. 100–102] and Weston and Brigham [17, p. 689], that the cost-of-equity capital of small industrial corporations is greater than that of large industrial corporations. The paper denotes this cost as ke and defines it as the expected rate of return on the stock of a company when the current price of the stock is in equilibrium. A common designation of ke of course is the equity capitalization rate. It will be noted that this definition of the cost-of-equity capital abstracts from the flotation costs that are usually incurred when companies sell new stock. Archer and Faerber [2] have already shown that these costs are inversely related to the size of companies.

Theory of Option Strategy Under Risk Aversion

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1968 3(3), 343
We shall investigate the problem of optimal exercising strategy for option holders for the case in which option holders are averse to risk. A model of stock price changes incorporating the Lognormal random walk assumption will be combined with a class of utility functions containing diminishing marginal utility of money. In general, the strategy of waiting until the last possible day to exercise an option, which maximizes expected value, will not maximize expected utility. The strategy which maximizes expected utility is obtained by a dynamic programming formulation of the decision problem. At each day (or decision stage), the option holder may choose to act (exercise) or wait until the next day. Working backwards from the last day, a series of critical prices are obtained, with the optimal strategy being as follows: act if the stock price on any day is greater than the critical price for that day; otherwise, wait. Using the concept of proportional risk aversion developed by Pratt, we will demonstrate that, under certain conditions, a utility function which exhibits increasing proportional risk aversion is sufficient to create a series of finite critical prices. Moreover, once an option is exercised, the option holder continually faces a tactical decision to hold the stock and wait for capital gains or sell and take profits as ordinary income, thereby avoiding further risk. This decision may also be optimized by a dynamic programming scheme similar to the approach used above.

Data analytics strategy and internal information quality

Contemporary Accounting Research 2024 41(2), 1376-1410 open access
I examine whether a strategic focus on data analytics is associated with improvements in firms' internal information quality. Using textual analysis of firm disclosures to identify a data analytics strategy, I first document that firm, leadership, and operating environment characteristics are all important determinants of the decision to adopt a data analytics strategy. I next use operating and financial reporting outcomes to infer whether a data analytics strategy improves internal information quality. I find that a data analytics strategy is associated with enhanced operating efficiency, as adopting firms invest and utilize existing resources more efficiently. I also find that a data analytics strategy is associated with more accurate management forecasts. These results, collectively, are consistent with a data analytics strategy improving firms' internal information quality. Lastly, I corroborate and extend my findings with job postings data, and the results suggest that firm leadership signals their support for data analytics initiatives through disclosure.

Accounting as a discipline for study and practice: 1986*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1987 3(2), 338-367
The long search for accounting principles has tended historically to be practice ‐and standards‐oriented. It is the author's contention that accountants might do better to think of themselves first and foremost as being involved in an intellectual discipline. Concern should be with subject matter , the nature of theory employed to handle problems dealing with that subject matter , and the methodology to be employed in verifying that theory. What has been put forward as a revolution in accounting thought in recent years may in this context come out as something more evolutionary in nature. We have: (1) useful extensions in subject matter — Information Economics and Agency Theory in particular; and (2) a sometimes healthy emphasis on and sometimes unhealthy obsession with empiricism in both macro (security market) and micro (choice decision) research. In fact, concern with both positive and normative questions, and employment of both logic and empiricism in our thinking, are essential in the study and practice of our discipline. The best of new thinking would seem to be complementary with , rather than a substitute for the best of what has gone on before. Résumé. La longue quête de «principes comptables» a été orientée historiquement vers la pratique et les normes. De l'avis de l'auteur, les comptables feraient mieux de se considérer comme œuvrant tout d'abord au sein d'une discipline intellectuelle. L'intérêt devrait porter sur le sujet , la nature de la théorie utilisée afin de prendre en charge les problèmes reliés audit sujet , et la méthodologie à être utilisée dans la vérification de cette théorie. Ce qui a été avancé dans les dernières années comme une révolution de la pensée comptable pourrait donner lieu dans ce contexte à quelque chose d'une nature plus évolutionniste. Nous possédons (1) des prolongements utiles dans le sujet — particulièrement l'économique de l'information et la théorie mandant‐mandataire; et (2) parfois une saine importance et à l'occasion une obsession malsaine de l'empirisme, accordées à la fois aux recherches de type macro (marchés financiers) et micro (décisions et choix des individus). De fait, le souci pour à la fois des questions positives et normatives, et l'utilisation dans notre réflexion à la fois de logique et d'empirisme, sont essentiels à l'étude et à la pratique de notre discipline. Les meilleurs aspects de la nouvelle pensée devraient être un complément plutôt qu'un substitut aux meilleurs aspects de l'approche antérieure.

Tests of the fund accounting model for local governments*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1986 3(1), 200-221
This study examines the association between an index of compliance with the fund model and bond risk measures. Several additional factors were posited to be associated with bond risk and to be correlated with the fund index. These variables were included in the analysis to control for possible spurious results. The results were consistent with the hypothesis that the fund accounting model provides information associated with creditor decisions. The fund index was negatively correlated with systematic and total bond risk after controlling for other factors. The index contributed marginally in explaining the variation in measures of risk for a sample of 214 cities. The results were insensitive to several alternative models that were examined but that are not reported in detail in the study. Résumé. Cette étude porte sur le lien entre un indice de conformité au modèle de comptabilité par fonds et les mesures de risque obligataire. Plusieurs facteurs étaient supposés être reliés au risque obligataire et correlés avec l'indice de fonds. Ces variables ont été incorporées à l'analyse afin de contrôler la possibilité de résultats trompeurs. Les résultats ont révélé une cohérence avec l'hypothèse voulant que le modèle de comptabilité par fonds fournisse de l'information reliée aux décisions des créanciers. L'indice de fonds était correlé négativement au risque obligataire, systématique et total, en contrôlant l'effet des autres variables. L'indice n'a pu expliquer*** la variation des mesures de risque pour un échantillon de deux cents quatorze municipalités. Les résultats n'ont pas été affectés par l'utilisation de diverses variantes de modèles qui, sans avoir été l'objet d'un compte rendu détaillé, furent examinés dans le cadre de cette étude.

Interdependence between the information evaluator and the decision maker*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1986 3(1), 50-67
A game theoretic model of the relationship between an information evaluator and a decision maker is formulated, and interdependence analysis is employed to decompose the game into several components. Each of these components represents one aspect of the interdependence relationship experienced by the information evaluator and decision maker. The analysis is then employed to distinguish among game forms. Résumé. Un modèle de la théorie des jeux établissant une relation entre un évaluateur d'informations et un décideur est proposé, et l'analyse d'interdépendance est utilisée afin de décomposer le jeu en plusieurs parties. Chacune de ces composantes représente une facette de la relation d'interdépendance vécue par l‘évaluateur d'informations et le décideur. Par la suite, l'analyse sert à établir une distinction parmi les “formes de jeu”.