Knowledge that Transforms

There is a growing appreciation in economics that people have emotional vulnerabilities, commitments to social norms, and systematic irrationalities that impact their decision making and choice in the market place. The flip side of this is that human beings are susceptible to being manipulated by unscrupulous agents single-minded about marketing their services and wares. This paper reviews George Akerlof and Robert Shiller's Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, alongside other writings in the field, and discusses how this research agenda can be taken forward. The paper shows how this new research can shed light on the ubiquity of corruption in so many societies, and proposes ideas for controlling corruption. (JEL D11, D90, M31, Z13)

The Health Gap documents the large and persistent health gaps that exist across and within relatively rich countries today. Marmot argues that in developed countries, poor health does not cause low incomes; rather, low socioeconomic status leads to poor health, but not because of proximate factors like differential health care access, which can explain only a small portion of these gaps. Therefore, to eliminate health gaps, policy should focus on the deep causes of disease: poverty, education, and occupational mobility, among others. While Marmot’s ethical arguments are quite compelling, his recommendations are too strong given the current evidence. Policies need to be based on a clearer understanding of why things work, when, and for whom. (JEL H51, I10, I13, I15, I18, I28)

While the GDP was intended by its originators as a measure of production, the absence of a measure of welfare in the national accounts has led to widespread misuse of the GDP to proxy welfare. Measures of welfare are needed to appraise the outcomes of changes in economic policies and evaluate the results. Concepts that describe the income distribution, such as poverty and inequality, fall within the scope of welfare rather than production. This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement of production and welfare within the national accounts, primarily in the United States and international organizations. Expanding the framework beyond the national accounts has led to important innovations in the measurement of both production and welfare. (JEL D63, E01, E23, E24, E31, I20)

Residential segregation by race and income are enduring features of urban America. Understanding the effects of residential segregation on educational attainment, labor market outcomes, criminal activity, and other outcomes has been a leading project of the social sciences for over half a century. This paper describes techniques for measuring the effects of neighborhood of residence on long-run life outcomes. ( JEL C51, I24, J15, K42, R23)

The achievements and limitations of the classical theory of optimal labor-income taxation based on social welfare functions are now well known. Even though utilitarianism still dominates public economics, recent interest has arisen for broadening the normative approach and making room for fairness principles such as desert or responsibility. Fairness principles sometimes provide immediate recommendations about the relative weights to assign to various income ranges, but in general require a careful choice of utility representations embodying the relevant interpersonal comparisons. The main message of this paper is that the traditional tool of welfare economics, the social welfare function framework, is flexible enough to incorporate many approaches, from egalitarianism to libertarianism. ( JEL D63, H21, H24, J24)

This paper reevaluates the basic prescriptions of monetary policy design in the new Keynesian paradigm through the lens of imperfect knowledge. We show that while the basic logic of monetary policy design under rational expectations continues to obtain, perfect knowledge and learning can limit the set of policies available to central banks, rendering expectations management in general more difficult. Nonetheless, the desirability of some form of price-level targeting, inducing inertia in interest-rate policy, paramount under rational expectations, is robust to the assumption of imperfect knowledge. (JEL D84, E13, E31, E52, E58)

The pharmaceutical industry accounts for a substantial chunk of the US economy's research and development investments, which have resulted in significant medical breakthroughs. At the same time, the costs of pharmaceutical products continue to rise, as does pressure to adopt direct or indirect controls on pharmaceutical prices. We review the economics literature on the pharmaceutical industry, focusing particularly on its positive and normative implications for the innovation, pricing, and marketing decisions of pharmaceutical firms. We discuss the major achievements of, and persistent gaps in, the literature, along with lessons for policy. (JEL I11, L11, L65, M31, M37, O31, O34)

In this paper, we survey the recent empirical literature on the effects of offshoring on wage, employment, and displacement. We start with an overview of the measurement of offshoring, organizing our discussion around the three key elements of offshoring: that it involves intermediate inputs for production (versus final goods for consumption); that it involves imported inputs (versus domestically produced ones); and that the inputs involved could have been produced internally within the same firm. We then briefly discuss the theories of offshoring and survey the literature that examines the wage effects of offshoring: the wave of studies using industry-level data; the wave using firm-level data; the wave using worker-level data; and the wave using matched worker-firm data. For each wave, we highlight the identification strategies used, critically assess its strengths and weaknesses, discuss its connections with theory, and draw out potential policy implications of its findings. Finally, we survey the literature that examines how offshoring affects employment and displacement. We highlight the recent development of a novel cohort-based approach that is specifically designed to address selection with displacement, and capable of identifying the overall effects of offshoring, including wage, displacement, and all other types of transitions. (JEL F23, J24, J31, J63, L24, M55)

This essay critically evaluates the analytic literature concerned with causal connections between Islam and economic performance. It focuses on works since 1997, when this literature was last surveyed comprehensively. Among the findings are the following: Ramadan fasting by pregnant women harms prenatal development; Islamic charities mainly benefit the middle class; Islam affects educational outcomes less through Islamic schooling than through structural factors that handicap learning as a whole; Islamic finance has a negligible effect on Muslim financial behavior; and low generalized trust depresses Muslim trade. The last feature reflects the Muslim world’s delay in transitioning from personal to impersonal exchange. The delay resulted from the persistent simplicity of the private enterprises formed under Islamic law. Weak property rights reinforced the private sector’s stagnation by driving capital from commerce to rigid waqfs. Waqfs limited economic development through their inflexibility and democratization by keeping civil society embryonic. Parts of the Muslim world conquered by Arab armies are especially undemocratic, which suggests that early Islamic institutions were particularly critical to the persistence of authoritarian patterns of governance. States have contributed to the persistence of authoritarianism by treating Islam as an instrument of governance. As the world started to industrialize, non-Muslim subjects of Muslim-governed states pulled ahead of their Muslim neighbors, partly by exercising the choice of law they enjoyed under Islamic law in favor of a Western legal system.( JEL N25, N45, O43, O53, P51, Z12)

I describe and compare sources of data on citations in economics and the statistics derived from them. Constructing data sets of the post-publication citation histories of articles published in the “top five” journals in the 1970s and 2000s, I examine distributions and life cycles of citations, compare citation histories of articles in different subspecialties in economics, and present evidence on the history and heterogeneity of those journals' impacts and the marginal citation productivity of additional coauthors. I use a new data set of the lifetime citation histories of over 1,000 economists from thirty universities to rank economics departments by various measures and demonstrate the importance of intra- and interdepartmental heterogeneity in productivity. Throughout, the discussion summarizes earlier work, including the impacts of citations on salaries and nonmonetary rewards, and how citations reflect judgments about research quality in economics and the importance of economic ideas. (JEL A14, I23)