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Noisy Contagion Without Mutation

Review of Economic Studies 2000 67(1), 47-56
In a local interaction game agents play an identical stage game against their neighbours over time. For nearest neighbour interaction, it is established that, starting from a random initial configuration in which each agent has a positive probability of playing the risk dominant strategy, a sufficiently large population coordinates in the long-run on the risk dominant equilibrium almost surely. Our result improves on Blume (1995), Ellison (2000), and Morris (2000) by showing that the risk dominant equilibrium spreads to the entire population in a two dimensional lattice and without the help of mutation, as long as there is some randomness in the initial configuration.

Ruling Out Multiplicity and Indeterminacy: The Role of Heterogeneity

Review of Economic Studies 2000 67(2), 295-307
It is well known that economies of scale that are external to the individual decision makers can lead to self-fulfilling prophecies and the multiplicity or even indeterminacy of equilibrium. We argue that the importance of this source of multiplicity and indeterminacy is overstated in representative agent models, as they ignore the potential stabilizing effect of heterogeneity. We illustrate this in a version of Matsuyama's (1991) two-sector model with increasing returns to scale. Two main results are shown. First, sufficient homogeneity with respect to individual productivity leads to the instability and non-uniqueness of a given stationary state and the indeterminacy of the corresponding stationary state equilibrium. Second, sufficient heterogeneity leads to the global saddle-path stability and the uniqueness of a given stationary state and the global uniqueness of equilibrium.