This paper simulates the impact of the AIDS epidemic on future living standards in South Africa. I emphasize two competing effects. On the one hand, the epidemic is likely to have a detrimental impact on the human capital accumulation of orphaned children. On the other hand, widespread community infection lowers fertility, both directly, through a reduction in the willingness to engage in unprotected sexual activity, and indirectly, by increasing the scarcity of labor and the value of a woman's time. I find that even with the most pessimistic assumptions concerning reductions in educational attainment, the fertility effect dominates. The AIDS epidemic, on net, enhances the future per capita consumption possibilities of the South African economy.

In a partially reformed economy, distortions beget distortions. Segments of the economy that are freed from centralized control respond to the rent-seeking opportunities implicit in the remaining distortions of the economy. The battle to capture, and then protect, these rents leads to the creation of new distortions, even as the reform process tries to move forward. In this paper I illustrate this idea with a study of the People's Republic of China. Under the plan, prices were skewed so as to concentrate profits, and hence revenue, in industry. As control over factor allocations was loosened, local governments throughout the economy sought to capture these rents by developing high margin industries. Continued reform, and growing interregional competition between duplicative industries, threatened the profitability of these industrial structures, leading local governments to impose a variety of interregional barriers to trade. Thus, the reform process led to the fragmentation of the domestic market and the distortion of regional production away from patterns of comparative advantage.

This paper documents the fundamental role played by factor accumulation in explaining the extraordinary postwar growth of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Participation rates, educational levels, and (excepting Hong Kong) investment rates have risen rapidly in all four economies. In addition, in most cases there has been a large intersectoral transfer of labor into manufacturing, which has helped fuel growth in that sector. Once one accounts for the dramatic rise in factor inputs, one arrives at estimated total factor productivity growth rates that are closely approximated by the historical performance of many of the OECD and Latin American economies. While the growth of output and manufacturing exports in the newly industrializing countries of East Asia is virtually unprecedented, the growth of total factor productivity in these economies is not.

The influence of Schumpeter's notion of "creative destruction" may have led to an overemphasis on substitution between technologies in recent models of endogenous innovation. Historical examples of technological change suggest that new technologies may just as frequently complement older technologies, creating, rather than destroying, rents. Acknowledgment of the potential for both substitution and complementarity among inventions allows for a much richer characterization of the growth process, creating the possibility of threshold effects and multiple equilibria and bringing to the forefront the important role played by the expectations of inventive entrepreneurs.

I. The social sciences differ from the physical in that the observer's interest lies within them, 1. — The contractual and the institutional views of society, 5. — Corresponding types of investigation, 6. — The genetic point of view, 7. — II. Group research and its promise, 11. — Induction and deduction, 12. — Fruitful hypotheses essential, 14. — Individual research; the constructive imagination, 15. — Promising types of research, 16. — The limitations and promise of research, 23.

Depreciation and Reproduction Cost Allyn A. Young Allyn A. Young Harvard University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 41, Issue 2, February 1927, Pages 345–349, https://doi.org/10.2307/1883506 Published: 01 February 1927

Journal Article The Aged Poor of Massachusetts Get access Allyn A. Young Allyn A. Young Harvard University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 40, Issue 3, May 1926, Pages 549–554, https://doi.org/10.2307/1885178 Published: 01 May 1926

IN the preceding installment of this series of studies, certain important differences in the seasonal and cyclical fluctuations of banking phenomena in New York City and outside of New York City were shown. These differences were such as to suggest doubts respecting the adequacy and significance of any generalizations about the characteristics of the behavior of bank credit in which the distinction between the banks in a country's central money market and the country's other banks is not taken into account. It was observed, furthermore, that the series relating to banks outside of New York City were, in effect, weighted averages of series such as might have been compiled for different types of banks or for banks in different sections of the country. Certain questions at once suggest themselves. How representative is the average? How much real diversity does it cover up? How far is the general process of give and take between New York City and the rest of the country supplemented by other recurrent processes that play a part in the mobilizing and the distributing of credit? The series that are analyzed in the present installment have been selected with the purpose of throwing light upon such questions. They are not the only series which would have been useful for that purpose. But the amount of transcribing and computing which these studies have required is so large that some selection has been necessary. A few words in explanation of the grounds upon which the selection is made appear to be called for. It will be observed that the threefold classification of national banks according to their legal reserve requirements (banks in central reserve cities, banks in reserve cities, and other banks) has been passed over in order to make room for a regional dassification. Preliminary studies led me to believe that the regional differences, on the whole, were more significant. Nevertheless, in addition to the figures already given for New York City, I have found it possible to give figures for another central reserve city (Chicago), and for two important reserve cities (Boston and San Francisco). The regional classification which I have used is taken over from the reports of the Comptroller of the Currency.' Doubtless, by some other scheme of dassification, regions could be marked off that would have more industrial and financial homogeneity. But the possible advantage of reclassification did not seem to justify the additional computation that would have been required. In the case of the Eastern states, the figures for New York City, given separately, have been subtracted from the aggregate for the region. The figures for the other regions have not been altered by subtractions or additions. The regional series, therefore, may be viewed as constituting a regional dissection of the composite series for all outside banks which were discussed in the preceding installment. I have not thought it worth while to use a large number of different series in this regional study. I have selected deposits and loans and discounts because their fluctuations, undoubtedly, are more significant than those of any other banking series. For the geographic sections, although not for the selected cities, I have also inquired into the fluctuations of investments. Aside from the variations of loans and discounts and the movement of money into and out of the banks the fluctuations of investments have a more important relation to the fluctuations of deposits than the movements of any other banking series have. As for the movement of money

Consumers' Surplus in International Trade. A Supplementary Note Get access Allyn A. Young Allyn A. Young Harvard University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 39, Issue 3, May 1925, Pages 498–499, https://doi.org/10.2307/1882443 Published: 01 May 1925