IN IIg an analysis of New York bank clearings and railroad and industrial stock prices for the period I903-I4 showed that these three speculative series displayed similar cyclical fluctuations, preceding corresponding fluctuations of outside bank clearings and money rates by several months.2 With the object of testing the synchronism of the cyclical fluctuations of the speculative series for a longer period of years, the study has been extended back to i866; and comparisons of the series for the entire period I866-I9I4 are set forth in this paper. For the period 1903-I4 the data underlying these comparisons were taken from the previous study. For the period I866-I902 new data were assembled. Monthly items for bank clearings for I866I902 were obtained from the Commercial and Financial Chronicle.3 In order to obtain a continuous series of monthly railroad stock prices beginning with I866, it was necessary to join three indexes. For the period I866-80 there was available the index of the prices of Io railroad common stocks previously published in this REVIEW.4 For the years I88I-96 no index was available and a new monthly index of the prices of Io railroad common stocks was constructed. This index is described in detail in the Appendix to this paper, pp. I93-98. For the remainder of the period under examination, we used the Dow-Jones index of railroad stocks, available from I897.5 These three indexes, which are on different bases, were adjusted to form a continuous series on the level of the Dow-Jones index by the use of factors based on overlapping data. Indexes of industrial stock prices were available in monthly form beginning with I872. For the years I872-96 the series compiled by the New York Federal Reserve Bank was available, and from I897, the Dow-Jones index.6 As the series for I872-96 was obtained by working backward from the Dow-Jones list of I2 stocks in I897, adjustment of the series for the two periods was unnecessary. No indexes of industrial stock prices were available earlier than I872 because of the lack of representative organized markets. Similarity in the cyclical fluctuations of the three speculative series would probably have been revealed by plotting them on the same logarithmic chart. But comparison would have been difficult at times owing to the diverging or crossing of the curves the result of varying trends. In New York bank clearings the general movement was upward throughout the period (Chart 2). A moderate, steady rate of growth persisted from i866 to I896, followed by a sharper upward trend during a transitional period which lasted until I903. Thereafter until the end of the period, the rate of increase was less marked. The series for railroad stock prices was subject to both changes in the character of the long-time movement and pronounced shifts of level. During the years i866 to about I882 the trend was uncertain; the succeeding movement, not far from horizontal, persisted until I897, and was followed by an abrupt transition in I897I903 to a markedly higher level, which was maintained through I9I4 (Chart 3). Industrial stock prices showed one sharp

agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry, mining, and manufacture (Table A). In agriculture, the total crop-yield maintained its I923 level, and animal husbandry established a new high record. Forestry declined from the I923 level, but the index was, nevertheless, above the I9I9 figure and the second highest in the post-war period. Mining and manufacture, to be sure, showed marked curtailment in output from the I923 record but the combined index, not adjusted for growth, was at least a fifth greater than for I9I9 and second only to

which is free from the influence of prices. Bank debits, which afford the most general index of business activity, measure the dollar volume of transactions made through checks, and hence reflect the prices of goods, services (i.e., wages in general), and securities, as well as the volume of transactions; whereas most series expressed in physical units, however well they may reflect general movements, actually apply to some particular phase of activity, such as freight shipments or manufacturing.

A,NALYSIS of business conditions in the I 2 federal reserve districts, as shown by the fluctuations in the volume of check payments (bank debits) since the beginning of I9I9, supports the following conclusions: (I) Business in the individual districts usually fluctuates in sympathy with that in the United States as a whole. There are no systematic differences in either the timing or nature of the business fluctuations among the various federal reserve (listricts, after due allowance has been made for varying seasonal movements and trends. Such differences as do appear are clearly less significant than the fundamental similarity in the broader movements. This condition is indicative of the close economic interrelationship of the several areas of our country. (2) Substantial improvement has been taking place in agricultural conditions in recent years. This is clearly reflected in the figures for the primarily agricultural districts, notably the Kansas City and Dallas districts. The sharpest recent movement is to be found in the Minneapolis district, where the marketing of a large spring wheat crop in I927 has been clearly reflected in the figures for debits. The Kansas City and Dallas districts exhibit a more steady gain, and have advanced materially above their I924 levels. (3) The recurrent brief periods of expansion, recession, and renewed expansion are less marked in bank debits than in basic production. This condition is explained by the fact that fluctuations in such production, while important, do not represent the movements of general business. Bank debits, on the other hand, constitute an extremely representative measure of the complex of activities included under the term general business. Production of consumption goods, wholesale and retail trade, construction of buildings and engineering projects, and agriculture these and all other forms of economic activity have a share in making up the total of check transactions. Thus, while production indexes have moved sharply during these intermediate movements, it seems probable that the narrower movements of total debits depict more accurately the course of general business over the past few years. Except in those districts which are primarily agricultural, the several districts contain such a diversity of economic interests that the volume of check transactions is relatively insensitive to changes in any one line of activity. There are, however, some instances (notably the Cleveland district, where the iron and steel trade is of such great importance) in which sharp changes in the pace of basic industry are reflected in the figures for debits. These conclusions are based upon adjusted relatives for bank debits which appear on Charts 3 and 5 and in Table 4. Conditions in the various federal reserve districts are discussed in the following sections and a map of the I2 districts appears on page I46. A full description of the actual data and the statistical methods employed in adjusting the figures for irregularities of the calendar, trend, and seasonal variation is given in the section on data and methods,

THE purpose of the present study is to revise our index of the yield of io railroad bonds by correcting certain defects which have become apparent, so that it will more accurately register the fluctuations of pure long-time interest rates. Table X presents the maturity dates and other data for the bonds included in the old index.' The wide variation in maturity dates, ranging from I927 to 236i, and the fact that the bonds do not at present represent high class investments in railroad securities are obvious reasons for the construction of a new index.