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Once Bitten, Twice Shy: The Relation between Outcomes of Earnings Guidance and Management Guidance Strategy

The Accounting Review 2010 85(6), 1951-1984
We examine how management quarterly guidance strategy is affected by various outcomes from previously issued guidance. We find that managers are less likely to provide quarterly earnings guidance for a given year when past management forecasts have been overly optimistic, when past forecasts were unsuccessful at influencing analysts’ expectations, when past forecasts failed to reduce information asymmetry, and when past forecasts resulted in earnings disappointments. For firms that continue to give guidance, adverse prior outcomes also affect the precision of future guidance and the number of quarters within a year for which they give guidance.

Dividend Changes and the Persistence of Past Earnings Changes

Journal of Finance 2004 59(5), 2093-2116 open access
We examine whether the market interprets changes in dividends as a signal about the persistence of past earnings changes. Prior to observing this signal, investors may believe that past earnings changes are not necessarily indicative of future earnings levels. We empirically investigate whether a change in dividends alters investors' assessments about the valuation implications of past earnings. Results confirm the hypothesis that changes in dividends cause investors to revise their expectations about the persistence of past earnings changes. This effect varies predictably with the magnitude of the dividend change and the sign of the past earnings change.

The effect of quarterly earnings guidance on share values in corporate acquisitions

Journal of Corporate Finance 2012 18(5), 1269-1285
We investigate whether quarterly earnings guidance by corporate takeover targets is associated with acquisition premiums. Regulators have expressed recurring concerns that quarterly guidance is associated with a misallocation of resources because it encourages management to focus on excessively short-term horizons. If so, firms providing quarterly guidance represent an acquisition opportunity for non-guiding firms because acquired resources can be redeployed towards more productive long-term uses. Based on prior research that finds value created by acquisitions accrues primarily to target shareholders, we predict that an expected increase in value from the termination of guidance will be observed in acquisition premiums. We find that, after controlling for the other determinants of acquisition gains, the premium paid for an acquired corporation is associated with the target's practice of issuing quarterly earnings guidance. Consistent with our prediction, we find that no incremental premium is paid to acquire guiding targets when the bidding firm also provides guidance.