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Liquidity and the cross-section of international stock returns

Journal of Banking & Finance 2021 127, 106123
We perform a comprehensive investigation of the illiquidity premium in international stock markets. We examine several established liquidity measures in 45 countries for the years 1990–2020. Our findings provide convincing evidence that liquidity pricing depends strongly on firm size. Although the premium is globally present, it exists only among microcap stocks, which have negligible economic significance. Outside the microcap universe, virtually no liquidity effect can be observed.

Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence

Journal of Banking & Finance 2021 133, 106238 open access
We perform the longest study of long-run reversal in commodity returns. Using a unique dataset of 52 agricultural, industrial, and energy commodities, we examine the price behavior for the years 1265 to 2017. The findings reveal a strong and robust long-run reversal effect. The returns of the past one to three years negatively predict subsequent performance in the cross-section of returns. The effect is robust to extensive subsample and subperiod analysis, and not driven by statistical biases, extreme events, or macroeconomic risks. Our findings support the explanation that the long-term reversal originates from supply and demand adjustments following price changes. Finally, the phenomenon is elevated in more volatile commodities and in periods of high return dispersion.