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Choosing an exchange-rate system

Journal of Banking & Finance 1999 23(10), 1483-1498 open access
The focus of academic discussions of exchange rate policy has shifted in recent years. The new literature on exchange rate regime choice emphasizes considerations relating to the problems of credibility in exchange rate targeting and the connections between exchange rate regime choices and choices of monetary and fiscal policy. Arguments for exchange rate targeting are reviewed. Under most circumstances and for most countries, a system of freely floating exchange rates is likely to be a better choice than attempting to peg the exchange rate.

A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(4), 673-698
This paper develops an equilibrium model of the determination of exchange rates and prices of goods. Changes in relative prices of goods, due to supply or demand shifts, induce changes in exchange rates and deviations from purchasing power parity. These changes may create a correlation between the exchange rate and the terms of trade, but this correlation cannot be exploited by the government to affect the terms of trade by foreign exchange market operations.

A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(4), 673-698
This paper develops an equilibrium model of the determination of exchange rates and prices of goods. Changes in relative prices of goods, due to supply or demand shifts, induce changes in exchange rates and deviations from purchasing power parity. These changes may create a correlation between the exchange rate and the terms of trade, but this correlation cannot be exploited by the government to affect the terms of trade by foreign exchange market operations.

Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: Explaining international

American Economic Review 1995
Trade on international financial markets allows people to insure country-specific risk and smooth consumption intertemporally. Equilibrium models of business cycles with trade on global financial markets typically yield international consumption correlations near one and excessive volatility of investment. The authors incorporate nontraded goods in the model and find that the implications for aggregate consumption, investment, and the trade balance are consistent with business-cycle properties of industrialized countries. However, the model driven by technology shocks alone yields counterfactual implications for comovements between consumption and prices at the sectoral level. Taste shocks produce price-quantity relationships more consistent with the data.

Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements

American Economic Review 1995 85(1), 168-185
Trade on international financial markets allows people to insure country-specific risk and smooth consumption intertemporally. Equilibrium models of business cycles with trade on global financial markets typically yield international consumption correlations near 1 and excessive volatility of investment. We incorporate nontraded goods in the model and find that the implications for aggregate consumption, investment, and the trade balance are consistent with business-cycle properties of industrialized countries. However, the model driven by technology shocks alone yields counterfactual implications for comovements between consumption and prices at the sectoral level. Taste shocks produce price--quantity relationships more consistent with the data.

Exchange Controls, Capital Controls, and International Financial Markets

American Economic Review 1988 78(3), 362-374
This paper examines the effects of restrictions on international financial markets in a general-equilibrium, rational-expectations model of a two-country world. Taxes or quantitative controls on purchases of foreign currency and on the income from foreign assets reduce international trade in goods, lower ex post welfare in the country in which they are imposed, and affect nominal prices and exchange rate.