Cost overruns on multi-period projects are large and frequent in natural environments. Reasons for these overruns include cost understatements in initial project proposals and escalation of commitment to projects when initial actual costs turn out to be higher than expected. Prior literature has suggested, and some firms have implemented, a device that limits escalation and thus potentially reduces cost overruns: changing decision makers (superiors) so that the manager who approves continuation of a project is not the same individual who approved the project initially. We provide theoretical explanations and experimental evidence about how changing versus continuing superiors affect the underestimates of cost in initial project proposals. We find that although changing superiors, as expected, are more likely than are continuing superiors to react skeptically to continuation proposals when first-period cost overruns have occurred, this does not reduce initial cost understatements and overruns. On the contrary, in our setting it leads to greater initial understatements and overruns. Subordinates anticipate that new superiors will be more critical of their projects; hence, they discount later-period payoffs and focus on gaining initial funding by providing understated cost estimates.

In an environment where employees have the freedom to direct some time away from their day-to-day routine tasks to work on creative endeavors, we examine whether nonbinding targets for the amount of time to spend (input target) and/or the amount of output to produce (output target) on the routine task affects creative task performance. Results of a laboratory experiment demonstrate that providing both an input and an output target on the routine task leads to greater creative task performance relative to providing one or none of these targets. This result is consistent with theory suggesting that individuals need guidance as to how much routine work to complete in order to achieve the cognitive closure necessary for them to think creatively. However, individuals also need guidance that encourages them to limit time on their relatively comfortable routine work and spend time on more open-ended creative endeavors. By setting expectations as to what employees need to achieve on their more routine day-to-day responsibilities, organizations can increase the efficacy of the growing practice of allowing employees to spend a portion of their work week on creative endeavors. Data Availability: Contact the authors.

Periodic demand forecasts are the primary planning and coordination mechanism within organizations. Because most demand forecasts incorporate human judgment, they are subject to both unintentional error and intentional opportunistic bias. We examine whether a disaggregation of the forecast into various sources of demand reduces forecast error and bias. Using proprietary data from a manufacturing organization, we find that absolute demand forecast error declines following the implementation of a disaggregated forecast system. We also find a favorable effect of forecast disaggregation on finished goods inventory without a corresponding increase in costly production plan changes. We further document a decline in positive forecast bias, except for products whose production is limited owing to scarce production resources. This implies that disaggregation alone is not sufficient to overcome heightened incentives of self-interested sales managers to positively bias the forecast for the very products that an organization would like to avoid tying up in inventory. Data Availability: Data are the property of the research partner and may not be redistributed by the authors.