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Foreign Know-How, Firm Control, and the Income of Developing Countries*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2009 124(1), 149-195
Management know-how shapes the productivity of firms and can be reallocated across countries as managers acquire control of factors of production abroad. We construct a quantitative model to investigate the aggregate consequences of the international reallocation of management know-how. Using aggregate data, we infer the relative scarcity of this form of know-how in a sample of developing countries. We find that developing countries gain, on average, 12% in output and 5% in welfare (with wide variation across countries) when they eliminate policy barriers to foreign control of domestic factors of production.

Learning the Wealth of Nations

Econometrica 2011 79(1), 1-45
We study the evolution of market-oriented policies over time and across countries. We consider a model in which own and neighbors' past experiences influence policy choices through their effect on policymakers' beliefs. We estimate the model using a large panel of countries and find that it fits a large fraction of the policy choices observed in the postwar data, including the slow adoption of liberal policies. Our model also predicts that there would be reversals to state intervention if nowadays the world was hit by a shock of the size of the Great Depression.

The Nature of Credit Constraints and Human Capital

American Economic Review 2011 101(6), 2487-2529
We develop a human capital model with borrowing constraints explicitly derived from government student loan (GSL) programs and private lending under limited commitment. The model helps explain the persistent strong positive correlation between ability and schooling in the United States, as well as the rising importance of family income for college attendance. It also explains the increasing share of undergraduates borrowing the GSL maximum and the rise in student borrowing from private lenders. Our framework offers new insights regarding the interaction of government and private lending, as well as the responsiveness of private credit to economic and policy changes.

Of Cities and Slums

Journal of Political Economy 2025 133(9), 2693-2734 open access
We study the emergence and persistence of urban slums in Brazil. Using data on labor markets, housing costs, and access to education, we construct a quantitative model to explore the impact of slums on the country s human capital and structural transformation. Urban slums emerge and persist due to their dual roles as intergenerational stepping stones for low-educated households and as blockades for higher-educated ones. Providing slum children access to schools in formal urban areas would have led to larger but shorter-lived slums. Improved rural schools, if available earlier during urbanization, would have vastly prevented the formation of urban slums.