Dollar Value of Soviet Industrial Production: 1955-1960
A RECENT article on this subject by R. W. Campbell and myself 1 was received with considerable interest both in the West and in the East. Unfortunately, however, rather more attention was paid to our somewhat crude extrapolation to 1960 than to the main body of the work which was concerned with determining the level of industrial output in 1955 in terms of physical production ratios with 1954 dollar weights. In this present study we propose to extend this comparison to 1958 and 1960. Here, as in our previous study, a dollar value of output for each non-engineering group is determined in terms of the 1954 United States Census of Manfactures concept of value for a corresponding United States industry, taken in proportion to the U.S.S.R./ U.S. physical production ratio. This ratio is based on the output data or best available estimates for the principal product, or group of products, of the given industry. This is usually done on a four-digit level of the 1954 United States Census of Manufactures classification, according to the formula: VA = United States VA times physical production United States physical production The resulting Soviet values added for individual industries were summed for each major industry group and non-engineering as a whole and expressed in terms of per cent of the corresponding United States value totals for 1954. Finally, these ratios were recalculated in terms of United States output in 1955, 1958, and 1960 by means of the Federal Reserve Indexes. In the first article, we classified the results for non-engineering industries into three categories, according to their reliability. Due to additional research, we were able to increase the equivalent of our first category of reliability from 66% to 73 % and to reduce the third category from just under 10% to 1'2%. In spite of this, the overall changes from our original 1955 results are comparatively small. As we have stated in the previous article, the engineering outputs of the two countries do not lend themselves to a direct comparison on the basis of physical production ratios due to heterogeneity of the product mixes, lack of sufficiently comprehensive data, as well as an absence of information about military production. Consequently, the following indirect methods were used.2