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Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis

Journal of Financial Economics 2005 75(2), 429-490
We study the properties of the nominal and real risk premia of the term structure of interest rates. We develop and solve the bond pricing implications of a structural monetary version of a real business cycle model, with taxes and endogenous monetary policy. We show the relation of this model with the class of essentially affine models that incorporate an endogenous state-dependent market price of risk. We characterize and estimate the inflation risk premium and find that over the last 40 years the ten-year inflation risk premium has been has averaged 70 basis points. It is time-varying, ranging from 20 to 140 basis points over the business cycle and its term structure is sharply upward sloping. The inflation risk premium explains 23% (42%) of the time variation in the five (ten)-year forward risk premium and it plays an important role in help explain deviations from the expectations hypothesis of interest rates.