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The impact of macroprudential policies in Latin America: An empirical analysis using credit registry data

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2020 42, 100828
This paper summarises the results of a joint research project by five central banks in Latin America countries (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) to evaluate the effectiveness of macroprudential tools and their interaction with monetary policy. Using meta-analysis techniques, we summarise the results of a common empirical framework based on confidential bank-loan data. The main conclusions are that (i) macroprudential policies have been quite effective in stabilising credit cycles. The propagation of the effects to credit growth is more rapid for policies aimed at curbing the cycle than for policies aimed at fostering resilience; and (ii) macroprudential tools have a greater effect on credit growth when reinforced by the use of monetary policy.

Does the geographical complexity of the Colombian financial conglomerates increase banks’ risk? The role of diversification, regulatory arbitrage, and funding costs

Journal of Banking & Finance 2022 134, 106076
During the last decade Colombian international financial conglomerates (IFCs) expanded abroad, significantly increasing their geographical complexity. This paper analyzes the effect of changes in geographical complexity on the level of bank risk. We used the z-score as a measure of bank risk and as a measure of geographical complexity, the number of countries where a Colombian IFC has bank subsidiaries. Our results suggest that complexity is associated with higher levels of banks' risk, due to the Colombian expansion overseas to countries with large GDP co-movements and lower regulatory qualities. In addition, we found some evidence that complex banks increase their demand for external funds when the internal cost of capital increases. Moreover, local monetary policy affects the relationship between banking complexity and bank risk.

Evaluating the impact of macroprudential policies on credit growth in Colombia

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2020 42, 100843
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of two macroprudential policies in Colombia: marginal reserve requirements and dynamic provisions. The first measure was implemented to control excessive credit growth, while the latter was designed to increase systemic resilience by establishing a countercyclical buffer through loan loss provision requirements. To perform this analysis, a rich dataset based on loan-by-loan information for Colombian banks during the 2006–2009 period is used. Our identification strategy closely follows Khwaja & Mian (2008), so that only those observations with multiple banking relations are considered. Estimations are performed applying firm and firm-time fixed effects to control for demand factors, thus appropriately isolating loan demand from credit supply. Results from the econometric model suggest that dynamic provisions, the countercyclical reserve requirement and an aggregate measure of the macroprudential policy stance had a negative effect on credit growth, which varies according to bank and debtor-specific characteristics. Particularly, effects are intensified for riskier debtors, suggesting that the aggregate macroprudential policy stance in Colombia has worked effectively to stabilize credit cycles and reduce risk-taking.