We develop a simple parametric model in which hypotheses about predictability, mispricing, and the risk-return tradeoff can be evaluated simultaneously, while allowing for time variation in both risk and expected return. Most of the return predictability based on aggregate payout yield is unrelated to market risk. We consider a range of Bayesian prior beliefs about the risk-return tradeoff and the extent to which predictability is driven by mispricing. The impact of these beliefs on an investor's certainty-equivalent return when choosing between a market index and riskless T-bills is economically significant, in both ex ante and out-of-sample analyses.

The traditional view of equity analysts is that they are a source of new information about future cash flows. We broaden this view by demonstrating that equity analysts are also a substantive source of new information about priced risk. In particular, we document that, when announced, changes in analyst risk ratings distinctly and significantly affect equity returns, and are generally followed by significant changes in Fama–French factor loadings. Also, while less frequent than credit rating changes, equity risk rating changes are timelier, and with a larger overall stock price impact than credit rating changes.