This paper empirically examines contagion effects of bank failures by analyzing the behavior of deposit flows in a sample of failed and healthy banks over the 1929–1933 period. We find evidence of contagion for 1930–1932, while none seems to have existed in 1929 or 1933. In addition, the pace of contagion accelerated over 1930–1932. We find that even during 1930–1932, failing-bank deposit outflows exceeded those at a matched control sample of nonfailing banks. This finding is consistent with the presence of a significant number of informed depositors who distinguished among ex ante failing and nonfailing banks.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: G21.

[We derive the optimal financial claim for a bank when the borrowing firm's uninformed stakeholders depend on the bank to establish whether the firm is distressed and whether concessions by stakeholders are necessary. The bank's financial claim is designed to ensure that it cannot collude with a healthy firm's owners to seek unnecessary concessions or to collude with a distressed firm's owners to claim that the firm is healthy. To prove that a request for concessions has not come from a healthy firm/bank coalition, the bank must hold either a very small or a very large equity stake when the firm enters distress. To prove that a distressed firm and the bank have not colluded to claim that the firm is healthy, the bank may need to hold equity under routine financial conditions.]

We derive the optimal financial claim for a bank when the borrowing firm’s uninformed stakeholders depend on the bank to establish whether the firm is distressed and whether concessions by stakeholders are necessary. The bank’s financial claim is designed to ensure that it cannot collude with a healthy firm’s owners to seek unnecessary concessions or to collude with a distressed firm’s owners to claim that the firm is healthy. To prove that a request for concessions has not come from a healthy firm/bank coalition, the bank must hold either a very small or a very large equity stake when the firm enters distress. To prove that a distressed firm and the bank have not colluded to claim that the firm is healthy, the bank may need to hold equity under routine financial conditions.