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Issues in the credit risk modeling of retail markets

Journal of Banking & Finance 2003 28(4), 727-752
We survey the most recent BIS proposals for the credit risk measurement of retail credits in capital regulations. We also describe the recent trend away from relationship lending toward transactional lending in the small business loan arena. These trends create the opportunity to adopt more analytical, data-based approaches to credit risk measurement. We survey proprietary credit scoring models (such as Fair Isaac), as well as options-theoretic structural models (such as KMV and Moody’s RiskCalc), and reduced-form models (such as Credit Risk Plus). These models allow lenders and regulators to develop techniques that rely on portfolio aggregation to measure retail credit risk exposure.

Financial Distress and Bank Lending Relationships

Journal of Finance 2003 58(1), 375-399
We use a unique data set of bank loans to examine the wealth effects on lead lending banks when their borrowers suffer financial distress. We find a significant negative announcement return for the lead lending bank when a major corporate borrower announces default or bankruptcy. Banks with higher exposure to the distressed firm have larger negative announcement‐period returns. The existence of a past lending relationship with the distressed firm results in larger wealth declines for the bank shareholders. Finally, financial distress also has a significant negative effect on borrower's returns.