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Has the global banking system become more fragile over time?

Journal of Financial Stability 2014 13, 202-213 open access
We examine the evolution of credit risk co-dependence in the banking sectors of over 65 countries. We find that there has been a significant increase in default risk co-dependence over the 3-year period leading up to the financial crisis. We also find that countries that are more integrated with liberalized financial systems have seen a greater rise in co-dependence in their banking sectors. This negative effect of financial openness is mitigated by a strong institutional environment that allows for efficient public and private monitoring of financial institutions.

How does competition affect bank systemic risk?

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2014 23(1), 1-26
Using bank level measures of competition and co-dependence, we show a robust negative relationship between bank competition and systemic risk. Whereas much of the extant literature has focused on the relationship between competition and the absolute level of risk of individual banks, in this paper we examine the correlation in the risk taking behavior of banks. We find that greater competition encourages banks to take on more diversified risks, making the banking system less fragile to shocks. Examining the impact of the institutional and regulatory environment on bank systemic risk shows that banking systems are more fragile in countries with weak supervision and private monitoring, greater government ownership of banks, and with public policies that restrict competition. We also find that the negative effect of lack of competition can be mitigated by a strong institutional environment that allows for efficient public and private monitoring of financial institutions.

Bribe Payments and Innovation in Developing Countries: Are Innovating Firms Disproportionately Affected?

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2014 49(1), 51-75 open access
Innovating firms pay more bribes than noninnovators across 25,000 firms in 57 countries. The difference is larger in countries with more bureaucratic regulation and weaker governance. Innovators that pay bribes do not receive better services and do not have greater propensity to engage in other illegal activities such as tax evasion. Thus, innovators are more likely to be victims of corruption than perpetrators. Our findings point to the challenges facing entrepreneurs in developing countries and are consistent with the view that rent seeking by government officials unlike private criminal activity is more likely to target innovators.

How does deposit insurance affect bank risk? Evidence from the recent crisis

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 48, 312-321
Deposit insurance is widely offered in a number of countries as part of a financial system safety net to promote stability. An unintended consequence of deposit insurance is the reduction in the incentive of depositors to monitor banks which lead to excessive risk-taking. We examine the relation between deposit insurance and bank risk and systemic fragility in the years leading up to and during the recent financial crisis. We find that generous financial safety nets increase bank risk and systemic fragility in the years leading up to the global financial crisis. However, during the crisis, bank risk is lower and systemic stability is greater in countries with deposit insurance coverage. Our findings suggest that the “moral hazard effect” of deposit insurance dominates in good times while the “stabilization effect” of deposit insurance dominates in turbulent times. The overall effect of deposit insurance over the full sample we study remains negative since the destabilizing effect during normal times is greater in magnitude compared to the stabilizing effect during global turbulence. In addition, we find that good bank supervision can alleviate the unintended consequences of deposit insurance on bank systemic risk during good times, suggesting that fostering the appropriate incentive framework is very important for ensuring systemic stability.