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Balanced and Unbalanced Growth

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1964 78(4), 621
“They was all one to me. Well, all but two was all one to me. And they, Strange enough, was two who kept recurring. Christopher Fry: A Phoenix Too Frequent. I. The rival doctrines, 621. — II. The doctrines confronted, 626. —III. The role of external economies, 630. — IV. Dialogue of doctrines and history; a postscript, 634. — V. Conclusion, 639.

Decline in the Relative Income of Negro Men

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1964 78(4), 525
Introduction, 525. — I. Occupational data and economic position: 1910, 1940, 1950, 526. — II. Income data for men, 1949 and 1959, 528. — III. Income data for women, 1949 and 1959, 532. — IV. The ratio of female income to male income, 533. — V. Why the relative decline for Negro men? 535. — VI. Education, 536. —VII. Age, 539. —VIII. Negroes in the labor force, 539. —IX. Negro-white unemployment ratios, 540. — X. Part-time employment, 543.— XI. Negro-white occupational distribution, 545. — XII. Trends in the sixties, 547. —XIII. Conclusion, 548.

Measuring the United States Balance of Payments

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1964 46(2), 139
T HE international transactions of the United States are larger in volume and variety than those of any other country, and the United States dollar is more widely used than any other currency. The international financial position of the United States defies simple summary, and the status of the dollar cannot be appraised by striking a single sum or balance across any set of numbers. But these familiar observations do not diminish the importance of the statisticians' efforts to devise an efficient summary. Although no one number can say very much, some summary statistics are better than others, and a proliferation of rival constructions may merely confuse a complex situtation. The balance-of-payments statistics of the United States are more complete and detailed than those of most other countries. But the Commerce Department declines to identify a surplus or deficit in the United States payments data. Instead, it spatters its tables with a dozen separate balances covering different subsets of numbers. Five of these balances, arrayed in Table 1, purport to be comprehensive, and each has been cited by one expert or another as the most appropriate measure of the

The Accuracy of the Commerce-S.E.C. Sales Anticipations

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1964 46(4), 398
ECONOMISTS have been interested in the accuracy of anticipations for two reasons. First, effective countercyclical policy depends on accurate forecasts of future investment, inventories, sales, etc. Second, the degree of accuracy of anticipations has implications about the way anticipations are formed. This paper deals with the accuracy of sales anticipations. The source of the data on anticipations is the Annual Survey of Business Anticipations of Sales collected by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Commerce. The only systematic study of these data has been conducted by Modigliani and Weingartner.2 In the first section, we test whether sales anticipations are more accurate than the forecasts of several naive models and whether anticipations correctly predict the direction of change of sales. Next, we test Theil's hypothesis that predictions refer to a shorter period than they are supposed to. In the last section of the paper, an accuracy measure proposed by Theil is adopted to determine (1) whether an accurate forecaster is less likely to commit systematic forecasting errors and (2) whether anticipations conform to the rational expectations hypothesis. Nature of the Data

EXAMINATION IN AUDITING.

The Accounting Review 1964 39(1), 195-207
The article presents solutions to questions that appeared in the November 7, 1963 Uniform Certified Public examination. There were in all 7 questions related to auditing. One question is related to the examination of fire insurance policies of the Cap Sales Company. Another question aims at opinions expressed by a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) on a client's financial statements. The third question asks for the discussion of control procedures for The United Charities organization based on its statement of receipts and disbursements. The fourth question relates to listing and discussion of various aspects of internal control by CPA after the examination of existing internal control of his client. The fifth question is related to audit procedures to be followed by a CPA in order to obtain an inventory certificate for a manufacturing company. The sixth question asks for information required by a CPA in order to audit a medium sized company's financial statements. The last question relates to preparation of auditor's adjusting journal entries for The Smoky Mountain Manufacturing Company.