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Mergers and the Value of Antitrust Deterrence.

Journal of Finance 1992 47(3), 1005-29
While the U.S. has pursued a vigorous antitrust policy towards horizontal mergers over the past four decades, mergers in Canada have until recently been permitted to take place in a virtually unrestricted antitrust environment. The absence of an antitrust overhang in Canada presents an interesting opportunity to test the conjecture that the rigid market share and concentration criteria of the U.S. policy effectively deters a significant number of potentially collusive mergers. The effective deterrence hypothesis implies that the probability of a horizontal merger being anticompetitive is higher in Canada than in the U.S. However, parameters in cross-sectional regressions reject the market power hypothesis on samples of both U.S. and Canadian mergers. Judging from the Canadian evidence, there simply isn't much to deter.

Managerial shareownership, voting power, and cash dividend policy

Journal of Corporate Finance 1994 1(1), 33-62 open access
While the classical dividend irrelevance theory implies that shareholders unanimously support the firm's dividend policy, managerial benefits from free cash flow, heterogenous personal tax rates and information asymmetries give rise to internal shareholder conflicts over the dividend decision. We conjecture that observed dividends resolve this conflict by consensus across heterogenous shareholder groups. We develop and test this consensus-dividend hypothesis using Canadian firms where managers tend to own a large amount of voting stock. The empirical evidence indicates that cash dividends decrease as the voting power of owner-managers increases, and are almost always zero when owner-managers have absolute voting control of the firm. Panel data estimation as well as factor-analytic techniques give further empirical support for the consensus-dividend hypothesis.

Toeholds, Bid Jumps, and Expected Payoffs in Takeovers

Review of Financial Studies 2000 13(4), 841-882
We estimate sequentially outcome probabilities and expected payoffs associated with first, second, and final bids in a large sample of tender offer contests. Rival bids arrive quickly and produce large bid jumps. Greater bidder toeholds (prebid ownership of target shares) reduce the probability of competition and target resistance and are associated with both lower bid premiums and lower prebid target stock price runups. The expected payoff to target shareholders is increasing in the bid premium and in the probability of competition, but decreasing in the bidder's toehold. The initial bidder's expected payoff is significantly positive in the "rival-bidder-win" outcome, in part reflecting gains from the pending toehold sale. Despite these dramatic toehold effects, only half of the initial bidders acquire toeholds.

Comment on ‘Determinants of Intercorporate Shareholdings’

Review of Finance 1997 1(2), 289-293
While intercorporate shareownership is common among publicly traded firms, systematic empirical evidence on this particular aspect of corporate ownership structure is sparse. Based largely on aggregated ownership data provided by various stock exchanges, we know that intercorporate holdings represent a relatively large proportion (above 40%) of the total equity value of exchange- listed firms in Japan and Germany, and a relatively low proportion (less than 10%) in the U.S. and the U.K. Thus, the Anglo-American corporate governance system appears to produce substantially lower levels of intercorporate shareholdings than does the German– Japanese governance model. While financial institutions in Germany and Japan play an integral role in the governance structures of those countries, securities laws inspired by early populist sentiments in the U.S. have prevented American financial institutions from playing a similar active role.1 Much like the Anglo-American system, securities laws in Norway, the empirical laboratory of Bøhren and Norli (1997), also restrict the equity ownership and direct corporate governance participation of financial institutions. Perhaps as a result the level of intercorporate

Bidding strategies and takeover premiums: A review

Journal of Corporate Finance 2009 15(1), 149-178 open access
I review recent empirical research documenting offer premiums and bidding strategies in corporate takeovers. The discussion ranges from optimal auction bidding to the choice of deal payment form and premium effects of poison pills. The evidence describes the takeover process at a detailed level, from initial premiums to bid jumps, entry of rival bidders, and toehold strategies. Cross-sectional tests illuminate whether bidders properly adjust for winner's curse, whether target stock price runups force offer price markups, and whether auctions of bankrupt firms result in fire-sale discounts. The evidence is suggestive of rational strategic bidding behavior in specific contexts.

Valuation Effects of Greenmail Prohibitions

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1990 25(4), 491 open access
Greenmail payments are widely viewed as actions designed by managers to perpetuate their tenure in office. This view, which suggests that greenmail prohibitions would enhance shareholder wealth, receives mixed empirical support in this paper. The average market reaction to charter amendments prohibiting greenmail payments is weakly negative, suggesting there is a value to maintaining managerial flexibility. Nonlinear maximum likelihood estimation, however, reveals a strong positive correlation between the market reaction and the firm's abnormal stock price runup over the three months just prior to the proxy mailing date. For the subsample of firms with a relatively large prior runup, the precommitment not to pay greenmail is value enhancing. If the prior runup reflects takeover rumors, then this evidence is consistent with the proposition that greenmail payments amidst takeover speculations are value decreasing.

The Conditional Performance of Insider Trades

Journal of Finance 1998 53(2), 467-498
This paper estimates the performance of insider trades on the closely held Oslo Stock Exchange (OSE) during a period of lax enforcement of insider trading regulations. Our data permit construction of a portfolio that tracks all movements of insiders in and out of the OSE firms. Using three alternative performance estimators in a time-varying expected return setting, we document zero or negative abnormal performance by insiders. The results are robust to a variety of trade characteristics. Applying the performance measures to mutual funds on the OSE, we also document some evidence that the average mutual fund outperforms the insider portfolio.

Valuation effects of corporate debt offerings

Journal of Financial Economics 1986 15(1-2), 119-151 open access
This paper analyzes the effect of corporate debt offerings on stock prices. Straight debt offerings have non-positive price effects, while convertible debt offerings have significantly negative effects. Public utility mortgage (non-convertible) bond offerings have marginally negative effects, and the effect is significantly negative when the proceeds are used to finance the utility's investment program. Cross-sectional regressions reveal no relation between offer-induced price effects and offering size, rating, post-offer changes in abnormal earnings or debt-related tax shields. The evidence is inconsistent with theories predicting that the price effects of capital structure changes go in the direction of the leverage change.

Horizontal mergers, collusion, and stockholder wealth

Journal of Financial Economics 1983 11(1-4), 241-273 open access
This paper tests the hypothesis that horizontal mergers generate positive abnormal returns to stockholders of the bidder and target firms because they increase the probability of successful collusion among rival producers. Under the collusion hypothesis, rivals of the merging firms benefit from the merger since successful collusion limits output and raises product prices and/or lower factor prices. This proposition is tested on a large sample of horizontal mergers in mining and manufacturing industries, including mergers challenged by the government with violating antitrust laws, and a ‘control’ sample of vertical mergers taking place in the same industries. While we find that the antitrust law enforcement agencies systematically select relatively profitable mergers for prosecution, there is little evidence indicating that the mergers would have had collusive, anticompetitive effects.

Consistent Estimation of Cross-Sectional Models in Event Studies

Review of Financial Studies 1990 3(3), 343-365
[Event studies often include cross-sectional regressions of announcement effects on exogenous variables. If the event is voluntary and investors are rational, then standard OLS and GLS estimators are inconsistent. Consistent ML estimators are constructed for a cross-sectional model of horizontal mergers relating announcement effects to exogenous characteristics of firms and industries. The OLS and ML estimates differ dramatically for bidders but not for targets. The evidence suggests that managers of bidders, but not targets, have valuable private information about the potential synergies from proposed mergers.]