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Reemployment Probabilities and Returns to Matching

Journal of Labor Economics 2001 19(3), 716-741
The assumption of constant returns in the matching function, embodied in most bilateral search models, is crucial to ensure the uniqueness of the unemployment rate along a steady‐state growth path. This article explores the empirical viability of this assumption by estimating individual reemployment probabilities on a sample of unemployment entrants. I apply hazard models to survey data on both completed and uncompleted unemployment durations. The hypothesis of constant returns to matching is not rejected, on the basis of the evidence that the job‐finding hazard depends only on local labor market tightness and is independent of its size.

Unequal Pay or Unequal Employment? A Cross‐Country Analysis of Gender Gaps

Journal of Labor Economics 2008 26(4), 621-654
We analyze gender wage gaps correcting for sample selection induced by nonemployment. We recover wages for the nonemployed using alternative imputation techniques, simply requiring assumptions on the position of imputed wages with respect to the median. We obtain higher median wage gaps on imputed rather than actual wage distributions for several OECD countries. However, this difference is small in the United States, the United Kingdom, and most central and northern EU countries and becomes sizable in southern EU countries, where gender employment gaps are high. Selection correction explains nearly half of the observed negative correlation between wage and employment gaps.

Worktime Regulations and Spousal Labor Supply

American Economic Review 2014 104(1), 252-276 open access
We study interdependencies in spousal labor supply by exploiting the design of the French workweek reduction, which introduced exogenous variation in one's spouse's labor supply, at constant earnings. Treated employees work on average two hours less per week. Husbands of treated women respond by reducing their labor supply by about half an hour, consistent with substantial leisure complementarity, and specifically cut the nonusual component of their workweek, leaving usual hours unchanged. Women's response to their husband's treatment is instead weak and rarely statistically significant, possibly due to heavier constraints in the organization of their workweek.

Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function

Journal of Economic Literature 2001 39(2), 390-431 open access
This paper surveys the microfoundations, empirical evidence, and estimation issues underlying the aggregate matching function. There is no consensus yet on microfoundations but one is emerging on estimation. An aggregate, constant returns, Cobb-Douglas matching function with hires as a function of vacancies and unemployment has been successfully estimated for several countries. Recent work has utilized disaggregated data to go beyond aggregate estimates, with many refinements and suggestions for future research. The paper discusses spatial aggregation issues, and implications of on-the-job search and of the timing of stocks and flows for estimated matching functions.

How Local Are Labor Markets? Evidence from a Spatial Job Search Model

American Economic Review 2017 107(10), 2877-2907 open access
This paper models the optimal search strategies of the unemployed across space to characterize local labor markets. Our methodology allows for linkages between numerous areas, while preserving tractability. We estimate that labor markets are quite local, as the attractiveness of jobs to applicants sharply decays with distance. Also, workers are discouraged from searching in areas with strong competition from other job-seekers. However, as labor markets overlap, a local stimulus or transport improvements have modest effects on local outcomes, because ripple effects in job applications dilute their impact across a series of overlapping markets.

The Ins and Outs of European Unemployment

American Economic Review 2008 98(2), 256-262 open access
In this paper we study the contribution of inflows and outflows to the dynamics of unemployment in three European countries, the United Kingdom, France and Spain. We compare performance in these three countries making use of both administrative and labor force survey data. We find that the impact of the 1980s reforms in Britain is evident in the contributions of the inflow and outflow rates. The inflow rate became a bigger contributor after the mid 1980s, although its significance subsided again in the late 1990s and 2000s. In France the dynamics of unemployment are driven virtually entirely by the outflow rate, which is consistent with a regime with strict employment protection legislation. In Spain, however, both rates contribute significantly to the dynamics, very likely as a consequence of the prominence of fixed-term contracts since the late 1980s.

Reservation Wages and the Wage Flexibility Puzzle

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2024 open access
Using micro data for the UK and Germany, we provide novel evidence on the cyclical properties of reservation wages and estimate that wages and reservation wages are characterised by moderate and very similar degrees of cyclicality. Several job search models that quantitatively match the cyclicality of wages tend to overpredict the cyclicality in reservation wages. We show that this puzzle can be addressed when reservation wages display backward-looking reference dependence. Model calibrations that allow for reference dependence match the empirically observed cyclicality of wages and reservation wages for plausible value of all other model parameters.

Taxes, Childcare, and Gender Identity Norms

Journal of Labor Economics 2026 44(2), 553-586 open access
We investigate the role of gender norms in shaping parental childcare following changes in the relative take-home pay of mothers and fathers. Exploiting variation from Swedish tax reforms, we estimate the elasticity of substitution in parental childcare for native and immigrant couples from a variety of countries characterized by varying gender norms. Couples originating from countries with relatively conservative norms are more likely to reallocate childcare to mothers following a reduction in the father’s tax rate and less likely to reallocate childcare to fathers following a reduction in the mother’s tax rate, thereby reinforcing a traditional allocation of childcare across parents.

Vacancy Duration and Wages

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2025 open access
We estimate the elasticity of vacancy duration with respect to posted wages, using data from the near-universe of online job adverts in the United Kingdom. Our research design leverages firm-level wage policies that are plausibly exogenous to hiring difficulties on specific job vacancies, and controls for job and marketlevel fixed-effects. Wage policies are defined based on external information on pay settlements, or on sharp, internally-defined, firm-level changes. In our preferred specifications, we estimate duration elasticities in the range −3 to −5, which are substantially larger than the few existing estimates.