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Opioid Use and Employment Outcomes: Evidence from the U.S. Military

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2025
There is significant interest in understanding labor market consequences of the opioid epidemic, but little is known about how opioid use affects on-the-job performance. We analyze the impact of opioid initiation on job performance using linked medical and personnel data for active-duty military members. Exploiting quasi-random assignment of patients to physicians in the emergency department, we find that military members assigned to high-intensity opioid prescribing physicians have a higher likelihood of long-term opioid use, are less likely to receive promotions, and are more likely to receive disciplinary actions and leave their jobs. Our results demonstrate productivity costs of opioid use.