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Institutional Investment Constraints and Stock Prices

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2017 52(2), 465-489 open access
We test the hypothesis that investment constraints in delegated portfolio management may distort demand for stocks, leading to price underreaction to news and stock return predictability. We find that institutions tend not to buy more of a stock with good news that they already overweight; they are reluctant to sell a stock with bad news that they already underweight. Stocks with good news overweighted by institutions subsequently significantly outperform stocks with bad news underweighted by institutions. The impact of institutional investment constraints sheds new light on asset pricing anomalies such as stock price momentum and post–earnings announcement drift.

The term structure of credit spreads, firm fundamentals, and expected stock returns

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 124(1), 147-171
We explore the link between credit and equity markets by considering the informational content of the term structure of credit spreads. A shallower credit term structure predicts decreases in default risk and increases in future profitability, as well as favorable earnings surprises. Further, the slope of the credit term structure negatively predicts future stock returns. While systematic slope risk is priced, information diffusion from the credit market to equities, particularly in less visible stocks, plays an additional role in accounting for return predictability from credit slopes. That is, such predictability is less evident in stocks with high institutional ownership, analyst coverage, and liquidity, and vice versa.