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Covenant violations and dynamic loan contracting

Journal of Corporate Finance 2017 45, 540-565 open access
This paper examines the dynamic allocation of control rights in private debt contracts of firms. We show that a covenant violation in the prior loan contract implies a stigma for borrowers which results in stricter loan contract terms in subsequent new loan contracts. Our analyses reject potentially other explanations such as firm characteristics or agency problems between the lender and firm management, shareholders or public debtholders. After covenant violations in the prior contract, new loans have on average 18bps higher spreads and include more of those covenant types which also have been violated in the prior contract, with tighter thresholds.

What drives startup valuations?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2024 168, 107251
We find that valuations of Venture Capital-backed startup companies invested by mutual funds are driven by their peer valuations rather than their fundamentals, such as operating performances. As startups oftentimes experience substantial valuation changes at their Initial Public Offerings (IPO), we also investigate the share pricing transition of startups from private to public companies. We find that more active pricing of shares prior to the IPO correlates with smaller discrepancies between private and public valuations as well as lower IPO mispricing, suggesting a link between private and public market pricing efficiency. Jointly, our results help investors and regulators achieve a better understanding of the dynamics behind misvaluation in private assets in general, and startups in particular.

The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in banks

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 40, 242-256
This paper investigates the relationship between the two major sources of bank default risk: liquidity risk and credit risk. We use a sample of virtually all US commercial banks during the period 1998–2010 to analyze the relationship between these two risk sources on the bank institutional-level and how this relationship influences banks’ probabilities of default (PD). Our results show that both risk categories do not have an economically meaningful reciprocal contemporaneous or time-lagged relationship. However, they do influence banks’ probability of default. This effect is twofold: whereas both risks separately increase the PD, the influence of their interaction depends on the overall level of bank risk and can either aggravate or mitigate default risk. These results provide new insights into the understanding of bank risk and serve as an underpinning for recent regulatory efforts aimed at strengthening banks (joint) risk management of liquidity and credit risks.

Does the lack of financial stability impair the transmission of monetary policy?

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 138(2), 342-365 open access
We investigate the transmission of central bank liquidity to bank deposits and loan spreads in Europe over the period from January 2006 to June 2010. We find evidence consistent with an impaired transmission channel due to bank risk. Central bank liquidity does not translate into lower loan spreads for high-risk banks for maturities beyond one year, even as it lowers deposit spreads for both high- and low-risk banks. This adversely affects the balance sheets of high-risk bank borrowers, leading to lower payouts, lower capital expenditures, and lower employment. Overall, our results suggest that banks’ capital constraints at the time of an easing of monetary policy pose a challenge to the effectiveness of the bank-lending channel and the central bank's lender of last resort function.