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Does express delivery run ahead of stock price?

Review of Finance 2024 28(5), 1687-1724
We study the role of logistics information in the stock price discovery process. Using a proprietary dataset on parcel-level express delivery service records from one of the largest express service providers in China, we find that express delivery contains firm-specific information for stock pricing. A long/short portfolio of buying (selling) stocks with high (low) quarterly growth in the number of parcels sent by firms generates an 8.23 percent risk-adjusted annual return. The return predictability is more significantly driven by document, light, and business-to-business parcels, which reflects the intensity of a firm’s overall operations (rather than just sales growth), and by parcels sent to new addresses, which represents new business expansion. Echoing this return predictability, parcel growth also predicts firm growth, profitability, and earnings surprises. Finally, we provide evidence on return predictability associated with topology of logistic network identified by parcel delivery data.

Law and borders: Entrepreneurs' immigration status and trade credit

Journal of Corporate Finance 2024 87, 102606 open access
We examine whether the immigration status of entrepreneurs is a concern for creditors when extending trade credit. Utilizing the disclosure of overseas residence rights of controlling shareholders in China, we show that overseas residence rights negatively affect firms' ability to obtain trade credit. This negative association is attenuated if the overseas jurisdiction has an extradition treaty with China. Our results are robust to the introduction of the Hong Kong national security law as a source of exogenous variation in the boundary of domestic law. The decrease in trade credit provision is more pronounced in firms that are perceived as less trustworthy (i.e., with less social trust or higher expropriation risk). Our results offer new insights into how the reach of law across borders can affect firms' financing activities.