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Ownership Dynamics and Asset Pricing with a Large Shareholder

Journal of Political Economy 2006 114(4), 774-815
We analyze the optimal trading and ownership policy of a large shareholder who must trade off diversification and monitoring incentives. Without commitment, the problem is similar to durable goods monopoly: the share price today depends on expected future trades. We show that the large shareholder ultimately trades to the competitive price‐taking allocation, even though it entails inefficient monitoring. With continuous trading, the large shareholder trades immediately to this allocation if moral hazard is weak enough that her private valuation of a share is decreasing in her stake. Otherwise, the large shareholder adjusts her stake gradually. We consider implications for asset pricing, IPO underpricing, and lockup provisions.

Bank solvency stress tests with fire sales

Journal of Financial Stability 2023 67, 101161 open access
We present a new framework combining current methods of bank solvency stress tests with a model of fire sales. We apply the framework to the stress tests conducted by the European Banking Authority. Fire sales are described by an equilibrium model balancing leverage improvements and drops in security prices. Additional bank losses caused by fire sales are significant and go beyond the trivial fact that with fire sales we will get bigger losses. Ignoring potential fire sales effects may lead to a false sense of resilience by assuming that institutions, which are in fact fragile, are resilient.