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Legal Restrictions, "Sunspots," and Peel's Bank Act: The Real Bills Doctrine versus the Quantity Theory Reconsidered
[This paper considers two questions: (i) what is the purpose of legal restrictions intended to separate "money" from "credit markets," and (ii) is such a separation desirable? It is argued that historical legal restrictions meant to achieve such a separation were designed to preclude the occurrence of sunspot equilibria. It is also shown that a coherent model can be constructed in which sunspot equilibria exist in the absence of legal restrictions, but not if money and credit markets are separated. Nevertheless, there is no obvious welfare justification for such a separation.]
Some Colonial Evidence on Two Theories of Money: Maryland and the Carolinas
A Theory of Mutual Formation and Moral Hazard with Evidence from the History of the Insurance Industry
[Nonprofit, mutually owned insurance and banking organizations have significant market shares in the insurance and banking industries. A first step in a systematic study of these financial mutuals is to examine the reasons for their formation. Doing so provides empirical support for the view that these mutuals arose as an efficient means of addressing contracting challenges caused by aggregate uncertainties and moral hazard. A formal model with this property is presented. We argue that information asymmetries do more to explain the kinds of contracts offered by financial mutuals than do agency problems between owners, managers, and customers.]
Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles
We study a one-sector growth model where capital investment is credit financed, and there is an adverse selection problem in credit markets. The presence of adverse selection creates an indeterminacy of equilibrium. Many equilibria display permanent fluctuations characterized by transitions between Walrasian regimes and regimes of credit rationing. Cyclical contractions involve declines in real interest rates, increases in credit rationing, and withdrawals of savings from banks. For some configurations of parameters all equilibria display cyclical fluctuations. We provide sufficient conditions for deterministic cycles consisting of m periods of expansion followed by n periods of contraction to exist.
A Model of Nominal Contracts
A model is produced in which labor contracts that prespecify (unindexed) nominal wage payments arise endogenously. These contracts function as a self-selection mechanism. Under appropriately different attitudes toward price-level risk (which can either arise directly from preferences or be induced by different patterns of asset holdings), nominal contracts allow high-productivity workers to signal their type by their willingness to accept unindexed contracts. This explanation of nominal contracts does not require that money be used in any particular set of transactions, and nominal contracts enhance the risk faced by all parties accepting them.
A Business Cycle Model with Private Information
A real business cycle model is constructed in which workers are heterogeneous and privately informed about their own productive abilities. The model is structured so that interesting cycles cannot arise in the absence of the informational asymmetry. In the presence of this asymmetry, the model produces cyclical fluctuations that are consistent with features of observed business cycles. Hours behavior of individuals is also consistent with micro evidence. In addition, the model gives rise to equilibrium unemployment of labor. The determination of equilibrium unemployment rates, hours levels, and output are integrally related in the analysis.
The Use of Debt and Equity in Optimal Financial Contracts
We consider risk-neutral firms that must obtain external finance. They have access to two kinds of stochastic investment opportunities. For one, return realizations are costlessly observed by all agents. For the other, return realizations are costlessly observed only by the investing firm. We examine the optimal allocation of investment between the two projects and the optimal contract used to finance it. The optimal contractual outcome can be supported by appropriate (and determinate) quantities of debt and equity issues. Investments in projects with CSV problems are associated loosely with debt. Investments in projects with observable returns are associated with equity. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G21, E51.
Indivisible Assets, Equilibrium, and the Value of Intermediation
This paper considers a standard monetary economy with indivisible primary assets and transaction costs. When assets are indivisible, if a steady-state equilibrium with positive savings exists, there necessarily exists a very large set of equilibria. The intermediation of indivisible assets substantially reduces the set of competitive equilibria, and enhances the "flexibility" of prices. We state sufficient conditions for intermediaries to form and hold all primary assets directly. We define and analyze various measures of the consumer surplus created by intermediaries. We show that conventional measures of intermediary output bear no obvious relation to the consumer surplus created by intermediation. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E40, G20.
Interest on Reserves and Sunspot Equilibria: Friedman's Proposal Reconsidered
Friedman's (1960) proposal to pay interest on (required) reserves is considered in a setting that eliminates the indeterminacy of steady-state equilibrium discussed by Sargent and Wallace (1985). In an overlapping-generations model where the real rate of interest is technologically determined, the payment of interest on reserves results in a determinate, Pareto optimal steady-state equilibrium. However, interest payments on reserves reduce the steady-state welfare of all young agents and, for many economies, result in the existence of stationary sunspot equilibria. This is the case even if such equilibria cannot exist when reserves do not earn interest.