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Une Solution Pour R.A.S.

Econometrica 1981 49(2), 519
Ce modele est principalement utilise en analyse input-output: A represente alors les echanges interindustriels de l'annee de base, u et v les consommations intermediaires totales par produit et par branche de l'annee de projection; plus generalement on peut appliquer cette methode pour desagreger des projections globales de flux positifs (importations par pays et produit, flux de transports . . ) lorsque l'on suppose une certaine stabilite structurelle. Diverses interpretations economiques des coefficients r, et s1 (qui sont en fait strictement positifs puisque u, et v; le sont aussi) ont ete avancees;1 notons toutefois que les grandeurs absolues de r et s n'ont pas de signification intrinseque, car si (r, s) est

Report of the Program Chairman

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1981 16(4), 631-633
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Efficient Market Tests of the Informational Content of Dividend Announcements: Critique and Extension

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1981 16(2), 193
In recent years a major controversy has formed in the finance literature regarding the empirical evidence of the informational content of dividends. Despite considerable support for the position of dividend nontriviality by various studies, the work by Watts [13] represents a formidable challenge. Because of the close proximity of the firm's earnings and dividend announcement dates, the major issue of the dispute has centered on the identification and control of contemporaneous earnings information. In an attempt to settle this controversy, the present study evaluates and extends Watts' methodology.

Intergenerational Transfers and the Distribution of Earnings

Econometrica 1981 49(4), 843
[This paper models the dynamics of the earnings distribution among successive generations of workers as a stochastic process. The process arises from the random assignment of abilities to individuals by nature, together with the utility maximizing bequest decisions of their parents. A salient feature of the model is that parents cannot borrow to make human capital investments in their offspring. Consequently the allocation of training resources among the young people of any generation depends upon the distribution of earnings among their parents. This implies in turn that the often noted conflict between egalitarian redistributive policies and economic efficiency is mitigated. A number of formal results are proven which illustrate this fact.]

Anchoring and Adjustment in Probabilistic Inference in Auditing

Journal of Accounting Research 1981 19(1), 120 open access
Auditors are faced with the task of formulating opinions about the fairness of their clients' financial statements. In doing so, they use their professional judgment to determine the type and amount of information to collect, the timing and manner of collecting it, and the implications of the information collected. This information is rarely, if ever, perfectly reliable or perfectly predictive of the "true" state of a client's financial statements. Nevertheless, auditors may be held liable at common law or under the federal securities laws should the audited financial statements prove to be unrepresentative of this true state. Thus, it is important for auditors to have the ability to formulate appropriately judgments based on probabilistic data. In this paper, we describe the results of experiments designed to assess whether auditors formulate judgments in accordance' with normative principles of decision making or whether a particular alternative to the normative model of decision making under uncertainty 's employed. In the next section, we discuss several alternatives to normative decision models, focusing on the anchoring and adjustment heuristic which forms the basis for our experiments.

Are Auditors' Judgments Sufficiently Regressive?

Journal of Accounting Research 1981 19(2), 323 open access
The primary purpose of this paper is to test for the use of the representativeness heuristic by auditors in situations in which its use will lead to judgments that systematically depart from the Bayesian optimal responses. No explicit representation of payoffs was made, nor were subjects typically asked to choose a course of action. Thus it cannot be concluded that use of the representativeness heuristic in the experimental situations tested is not cost effective. To the extent, however, that one is willing to assume that action choices are sensitive to judgments of outcome probabilities, and these action choices have differential expected payoffs, a finding of extensive heuristic use by auditors would suggest further research to assess the economic consequences of such use.