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The regulatory response to the financial crisis

Journal of Financial Stability 2008 4(4), 351-358 open access
There are numerous aspects concerning financial regulation which the current financial turmoil has high-lighted. These include: (1) the form of deposit insurance; (2) bank solvency regimes, ‘prompt corrective action’; (3) Central Banks’ money market operations; (4) commercial bank liquidity risk management; (5) procyclicality of CARs (and mark-to-market); lack of counter-cyclical instruments; (5) boundaries of regulation, conduits, SIVs and reputational risk; (6) crisis management: (a) within countries, e.g. UK Tripartite Committee; or (b) cross-border, how to allocate the burden of cross-border defaults? This paper describes how the crisis exposed regulatory failings, drawing largely on UK experience, and suggests remedies.

A framework for assessing financial stability?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2006 30(12), 3415-3422
I worked as a consultant in the Financial Stability Department (FSD) of the Bank of England for several years (2002–2004). In this paper I reflect on issues relating to the work of such an FSD, starting with the difficulty of defining or measuring ‘financial stability’. Stress tests are commonly used, but, for an FSD, should relate to the system as a whole, not just to individual institutions. FSDs need to assess the probability, virulence and speed of occurrence of potential shocks. There is a need to develop appropriate analytical models. The focus on capital adequacy has diverted attention from concern about having sufficient liquidity.

The optimal monetary instrument for prudential purposes

Journal of Financial Stability 2011 7(2), 70-77
The purpose of this paper is to assess the choice between adopting a monetary base or an interest rate setting instrument to maintain financial stability. Our results suggest that the interest rate instrument is preferable, since during times of a panic or financial crisis the Central Bank automatically satisfies the increased demand for money. Thus, it prevents sharp losses in asset values and enhanced asset volatility.

Debt, recovery rates and the Greek dilemma

Journal of Financial Stability 2018 36, 265-278
Most discussions of the Greek debt overhang have focussed on the implications for Greece. We show that when additional funds released to the debtor (Greece), via debt restructuring, are used efficiently in pursuit of a practicable business plan, then both debtor and creditor can benefit. We examine a dynamic two country model calibrated to Greek and German economies and support two-steady states, one with endogenous default and one without, depending on creditors’ expectations. In the default steady state, debt forgiveness lowers the volatility of both German and Greek consumption whereas demanding higher recovery rates has the opposite effect. In a second order approximation of the model, conditional welfare analysis shows that a policy of immediate leniency followed by harsher terms as the economy grows is beneficial to both creditors and debtors.