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Tax numbers and ETR forecasting

Review of Accounting Studies 2026 open access
This study examines the determinants and implications of the volume of tax-related numbers reported in the financial statements. I document that the volume of tax numbers increases with tax reporting requirements and decreases with the complexity of the tax rate, implying that firms with greater proprietary costs decrease their numeric disclosures once they meet mandatory reporting requirements. With respect to implications, I document that firms reporting more tax numbers improve the transparency of the information environment, reducing the errors and dispersion of analysts’ implied effective tax rate forecasts. In contrast, greater emphasis on narrative tax disclosure does not reduce information frictions, highlighting an important trade-off between numeric detail and strategic narratives. Further investigation suggests that this relationship is driven by more tax numbers in the financial statement footnotes rather than in the face financial statements. These findings suggest firms’ tax information environment improves with a greater volume of numeric tax-related disclosures.

Domestic Product Market Impacts of Politically Motivated Foreign Tariffs

The Accounting Review 2026
We examine how foreign non-income tax shocks affect U.S. product markets. Our setting is the politically motivated tariffs on U.S. whiskey exports levied during the 2018 trade war, which created an exogenous negative foreign demand shock for domestic producers. Using a difference-in-differences design we show that, on average, U.S. whiskey producers decrease U.S. product prices and thus increase domestic sales volume following the export tariffs. However, we find evidence of strategic pricing, as producers increase prices of locally produced products in primary production states (Kentucky and Tennessee) and more significantly decrease prices in states where whiskey consumption is less popular. Further, we show that U.S. whiskey producers implement smaller product price decreases in states with greater tariff-related media exposure and reduce advertising spending nationwide but not in Kentucky and Tennessee. Taken together, these findings provide timely evidence regarding how foreign trade restrictions impact the U.S. product market and consumer outcomes. Data Availability: NielsenIQ Retail Scanner Data are available through the Kilts Center for Marketing at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business (http://research.chicagobooth.edu/nielsen). Kantar Advertising Insights data are available by subscription. GDELT data are available at https://www.gdeltproject.org/.